Happy Friday, investors. As much as Nvidia’s earnings juiced markets, that momentum reversed course on Thursday and asset prices closed the day lower thanks to an update to the macro outlook.

In fact, the intraday reversal marked the biggest blown gain since April.

That doesn’t mean the AI trade is deflating or that the bull market is over, but traders are recalibrating expectations.

Nvidia’s blowout earnings excited investors just long enough for the delayed government jobs report to spook them again. 

Stocks had opened Thursday’s trading session sharply higher before reversing course shortly after data from the Labor Department cut into expectations for the Fed rate cuts. It marked the sharpest turnaround in stocks since April’s Liberation Day sell-off. 

In September, the US added 119,000 non-farm payrolls, more than double expectations for 50,000, according to the announcement, which arrived seven weeks behind schedule. 

However, the August data was revised down to a loss of 4,000 jobs and July’s figure was revised lower slightly, too, to bring the combined revision down by 33,000 jobs over two months.

Meanwhile, the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% for the first time since the end of 2021. 

A separate labor market report showed continuing unemployment claims climbed by 28,000 to hit 1.974 million, the most since November 2021.

The stronger-than-expected job growth gives hawkish policymakers an excuse to postpone rate cuts in December, though those who do want lower rates can point to rising unemployment. 

That split ended up raising odds for a rate cut next month from 30% to 39% over the last 24 hours, according to CME data. 

Those higher odds were not taken as good news by markets. 

Then again, one month ago traders saw 98% likelihood for lower rates in December. 

It’s possible that the ambiguous, “choose your own adventure” labor market numbers were what unnerved markets. 

Steady payroll growth combined with rising unemployment offers a rare and confusing combination that, as it happens, investors could not take in stride.

Strong hiring makes the Fed less eager to ease, but softer employment data could potentially tighten financial conditions all on its own. 

That puts the central bank in an uncomfortable middle ground that leaves risk assets exposed to whiplash.  

Staying on top of markets that hit a new all-time high seemingly every week, a never-ending news cycle and volatility that’s frankly...volatile is a lot of work.

No matter what the market is doing, tastytrade has the tools you need to stay up to date and trade your way through it.

With tastytrade you get advanced charts, in-feed news and smart tools to help you adapt your strategy when the market shifts. You can manage your entire portfolio (stocks, options, futures, forex, and crypto) all on one platform with low commissions. 

See why serious traders choose tastytrade. 

📉 Bitcoin is down 30% from its record high. The asset dipped below $87,000 on Thursday, well below its peak above $126,000 from October 6. Bitcoin is down about 20% in November alone. (WSJ)

🤖 President Trump wants to stave off some state-level AI regulations. White House officials and tech lobbyists are pushing back on certain local regulatory efforts that would hinder the speed with which AI products can develop. (Bloomberg)

📥 The Hustle is a must-read for innovators. Their daily newsletter delivers the latest stories in business and tech — what to learn from them and how to capitalize. Join 1.5M+ who start their day with The Hustle. Sign up today. 

🗓November 21, 1995: The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 5,000 for the first time ever, a symbolic milestone during the strong bull market leading into the eventual dot-com bubble and crash.

📩 Want to get in front of 192,000+ investors who get this newsletter and the 350,000 professionals who can access it on Bloomberg Terminals? Reply to this email and tell us why we should work together.

📰 I’m Phil Rosen, co-founder and editor-in-chief of Opening Bell Daily. I’ve published books, lived on three continents, and won awards for my journalism, which has appeared in Business Insider, Fortune, Yahoo Finance, Bloomberg and Inc. Magazine.

I write our flagship newsletter and host our show, Full Signal, to prepare you for each trading day — unpacking markets, economic data and Wall Street with analysis you won’t find anywhere else.

Feedback? Reply to this email, ping me on X @philrosenn, or write me directly at [email protected].