Good morning investors. It’s not common for everyday Americans to be on the same page with corporate executives when it comes to how they feel about the economy. Yet a series of new surveys are breaking from the usual pattern.

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Gloomy no longer

Americans no longer believe the economic sky is falling. 

That view spans everyday consumers and the C-suite, according to the results of two new surveys. 

Fresh data from the New York Fed shows inflation expectations are cooling across the board.

Consumers now see prices to rise 3.2% over the next year, down from 3.6% a month ago.

Projections over three- and five-year horizons also dropped to 3.0% and 2.6%, respectively.

The same survey also found that fewer people now believe they’ll lose their jobs in the next 12 months.

More respondents, too, expect earnings growth to improve over the coming year.

Much of this optimism traces back to the Trump Administration walking back some of its tariff proposals, which had dragged markets lower in the weeks following “Liberation Day.”

Those policies have since been paused as officials work to negotiate trade deals. 

But the backdrop to the politics is key — inflation has cooled every month in 2025 so far and recession fears have abated in kind.

Corporate executives have improved their outlook alongside households. 

The CEO Confidence Index has rebounded from its April lows, and the proportion of CEOs forecasting a recession has dropped from 62% in April to 28% in June.

In the latest survey, not a single CEO predicted a “severe” recession on the horizon.

In fact, half of the CEO respondents expect business conditions to improve in 2025, with many pointing to healthy balance sheets and steady demand. More than two-thirds of respondents said demand is as strong or stronger than a year ago.

Among other findings: 

• 67% of CEOs expect revenue to increase this year

• 54% anticipate profit growth

• 41% plan to increase hiring

• 36% project higher capital spending

Now, as promising as those trends sound, segments of the recovery remain fragile. 

Operating costs remain elevated, and some business spending remains on hold due to trade uncertainty.

That said, the fact the sharp rebound in optimism occurred among both consumers and executives marks a reversal from the gloom seen earlier in the year. 

Americans don’t expect a hard economic landing, and the people steering corporate America agree.

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Elsewhere

🍎Apple just made several splashy AI announcements. The iPhone maker touted software updates coming soon for customers at its annual Worldwide Developers Conference keynote on Monday. It will soon have more ChatGPT integrations, Vision Pro gaming updates, and an a Apple TV karaoke machine, among other updates. The stock closed lower Monday. (CNBC)

📉 Warner Bros Discovery stock dropped Monday. The company will split into two separate publicly traded names, with one company housing cable networks and the other the HBO Max streamer, movie studio, and TV production business. The move effectively reverses the 2022 merger of the two brand names. (WSJ)

📈 The bull case for stocks is growing. Wall Street strategists are revising their S&P 500 forecasts higher as the summer begins, and the benchmark index hovers within range of record highs. While economic data is showing signs of some softening, equity research teams are getting more upbeat. (Yahoo Finance)

Rapid-fire

• Hospital and healthcare stocks fell after a new Trump directive on Medicaid (WSJ)

• OpenAI, creator of ChatGPT, has hit $10 billion in annual recurring revenue (CNBC)

• Tesla stock surges nearly 5% Monday as Trump said he’s not getting rid of his Tesla and wishes Elon Musk well (Yahoo Finance)

• Robinhood and AppLovin stocks declined after they missed out on being added to the S&P 500 (Barron’s)

• Shares of Circle climbed again Monday, roughly quadruple the price from its IPO (CoinDesk)

• China’s May exports to the US fell 35% year-over-year, the biggest drop since February 2020 (WSJ)

• Money printing will push stocks and bitcoin higher while bonds lose out (Pomp Letter)

• The labor market isn’t collapsing but it is bleeding out in slow motion (Opening Bell Daily)

Last thing

About me

📰 I’m Phil Rosen, co-founder and editor-in-chief of Opening Bell Daily. I’ve published books, lived on three continents, and won awards for my journalism, which has appeared in Business Insider, Fortune, Yahoo Finance, Bloomberg and Inc. Magazine.

I write our flagship newsletter to prepare you for each trading day — unpacking markets, economic data and Wall Street with analysis you won’t find anywhere else.

Feedback? Reply to this email, ping me on X @philrosenn, or write me directly at [email protected].