Good morning, investors. This was scheduled to be one of the biggest days of the month for market-watchers, but the government shutdown means we have to look elsewhere to get our economic data fix.

That’s exactly what we’re doing in today’s edition of the newsletter.

The government shutdown means investors will go without their usual guide to the labor market.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics is unlikely to release the September jobs report as scheduled today, which leaves markets and policymakers without one of their most closely-watched data releases of the month. 

But even when the government is open, those numbers aren’t exactly reliable. 

A combination of political noise and inaccurate reporting has undermined credibility — response rates have collapsed, massive revisions are expected, and “official” numbers fluctuate wildly. 

That makes alternative indicators more critical. 

And right now, Google Search trends offers one of the clearest windows into worker sentiment and labor market conditions. 

The charts below illustrate two decades of search volume for the terms “part time,” “second job,” “job security” and “new job.”

All four have spiked to record highs — above both 2008 and pandemic levels — signaling workers are hustling for more hours, looking to supplement income, and worrying over stability.  

The shape and trajectories for each search term mirrors 2008 and 2020, but the volume is far higher. 

Inflation eating into wages plays a role here, too.

While asset prices continue to surge and the Federal Reserve is expected to continue cutting interest rates, the outlook for jobs remains fragile. 

Earlier this week, the private payroll provider ADP reported a decline of 32,000 jobs in September, below economists’ expectations for an increase of 45,000.

That also accompanied a downward revision to the August data from a gain of 54,000 to a loss of 3,000. 

“It is more difficult than usual to measure the state of the US labor market, with gold-standard economic indicators produced by the federal government unavailable during the shutdown,” said Bill Adams, chief economist for Comerica Bank.

“The alternative data sources imply that the job market is still in a low hire, low fire, low gear mode.”

Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren on Thursday called on the Trump administration to release the September jobs report, according to a CNN report. 

💰 President Trump weighs a $10 billion bailout for US farmers. The potential aid would come as the agriculture sector takes a hit from tariffs, and revenue from the tariffs themselves could fund the initiative. (WSJ)

🚗 Tesla reported record car deliveries in Q3. While the stock dipped Thursday, the company announced it saw a 29.4% jump in vehicle deliveries compared to the prior quarter, in part due to the expiration of the $7,500 EV tax credit. (Barron’s)

📉 US GDP could take a hit from the government shutdown. That’s according to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who said the stoppage will be a “hit to working America.” (CNBC)

📈Want more tech insights? Memorandum distills the day’s most pressing tech stories into one concise, easy-to-digest bulletin, empowering you to make informed decisions in a fast-moving landscape. Whether it’s AI breakthroughs, startup funding or broader market disruptions, Memorandum has you covered. Get the memo.

📰 I’m Phil Rosen, co-founder of Opening Bell Daily. I’ve published books, lived on three continents, and won awards for my journalism, which has appeared in Business Insider, Fortune, Yahoo Finance, Bloomberg and Inc. Magazine.

I write our flagship newsletter to prepare you for each trading day — unpacking markets, economic data and Wall Street with analysis you won’t find anywhere else.

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