Good morning from Chicago. Flew in from New York for my good friend’s wedding (congrats, Tod!). Today’s edition unpacks fresh labor market data, which once again adds a wrinkle to the Fed’s wait-and-see strategy. Plus, we’ll unpack Chime’s IPO, Coinbase’s partnership with American Express, and more.

Developing: Israel carried out a strike against Iran late Thursday, targeting the country’s nuclear program and other military sites, according to Israel’s defense minister. Oil prices spiked and stock futures fell overnight. More here.

More labor market softening

The Fed is looking less data-driven and more stubborn with every economic data release.

Following the fourth consecutive cooler-than-expected inflation report, the Labor Department released fresh data Thursday that showed weekly claims for unemployment benefits reached their highest in eight months at 248,000, higher than economists’ forecast for 242,000.

The release also showed 1.956 million Americans filed for continuing claims, up from 1.902 million the week prior and the highest mark since November 2021.

“Taken at face value, [the jobs data] implies that rates of hiring have declined even if rates of firing have not materially increased,” said Neil Dutta, head of economics at Renaissance Macro.

Investors, for their part, didn’t seem bothered by the latest evidence of weakness in the labor market, as each of the three US benchmarks closed higher on Thursday. 

The S&P 500 has climbed more than 21% from its April low and remains positive year-to-date.

To be sure, the jobs data — adjusted for seasonal trends — does hover within range of the last two years.

Goldman Sachs analysts noted that jobless claims in particular can be more volatile in the weeks surrounding the Memorial Day holiday. 

That said, traders have quietly begun to reprice expectations for looser monetary policy. The odds of a 25-basis-point rate cut in July climbed from 18.2% to 23.1% after jobless claims were published, according to CME data.

As Opening Bell Daily has reported, while the labor market isn’t collapsing it does seem to be bleeding out in slow motion.

Not only are total initial and continuing rising, but prime working-age individuals continue to lose jobs and full-time roles keep evaporating. 

Meanwhile, the employment-to-population ratio has fallen to 59.7%, which marks the lowest level since January 2022.

“We believe that were it not for the uncertainty caused by the tariffs, the combined information coming from the inflation and labor-market data would have compelled the Fed to have resumed cutting its policy rate by now,” said Thierry Wizman, global rates strategist at Macquarie.

“We said this last week too, before the May employment and CPI reports.”

Market snapshot

Elsewhere

📈 Chime Financial soared for its IPO. The stock soared nearly 50% during its debut trading day, marking the latest sign that the US IPO market is waking back up. The stock hovered around a $15 billion market capitalization based on its share price near the end of the trading session. (WSJ)

📉 Coinbase stock fell Thursday, the same day it revealed its first branded credit card in partnership with American Express. It will be available only to members of Coinbase One, the platform’s monthly subscription product. (CNBC)

🎙️The Flyover Podcast delivers concise, unbiased daily news in politics, business, sports, and more — packed into just 15 minutes. Stream now on YouTube, Spotify, or Apple.

Rapid-fire

• Boeing stock dropped 4.6% after a fatal Air India plane crash killed nearly everyone onboard (Yahoo Finance)

• Scott Bessent floated the idea of extending tariff pause for countries in “good faith” talks (CNBC)

• A closely-watched auction for 30-year Treasurys saw stronger-than-expected demand on Thursday (Bloomberg)

• Short-seller Jim Chanos questioned Strategy’s valuation premium over its bitcoin holdings (Reuters)

• GameStop shares dropped 23% after it announced it plans to sell $1.75 billion of convertible bonds (Yahoo Finance)

• AMD stock dipped after unveiling details about its next-gen AI chips alongside OpenAI’s Sam Altman (CNBC)

• Tariffs have yet to deliver the inflation surge economists feared (Opening Bell Daily)

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Interview

I joined The MoneyShow podcast to discuss the stock market’s rebound from Liberation Day, the latest economic data, and more:

Last thing

About me

📰 I’m Phil Rosen, co-founder and editor-in-chief of Opening Bell Daily. I’ve published books, lived on three continents, and won awards for my journalism, which has appeared in Business Insider, Fortune, Yahoo Finance, Bloomberg and Inc. Magazine.

I write our flagship newsletter to prepare you for each trading day — unpacking markets, economic data and Wall Street with analysis you won’t find anywhere else.

Feedback? Reply to this email, ping me on X @philrosenn, or write me directly at [email protected].