The Fed is losing its inflation battle

Data for three key price measures are now moving in the wrong direction.

Hope you had a great Thanksgiving! The stock market is back in action today, but only for a half-day session.

This morning we’re covering a troubling update on the inflation story.

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Inflation isn’t cooling

There is a lot to be thankful for in the US economy.

The latest broad acceleration in price pressures does not fall into that bucket.

On Wednesday, the Commerce Department reported the personal consumption expenditures price index — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — climbed in October to an annual rate of 2.3%.

Core PCE came in hot, too, with a year-over-year print of 2.8%, up from a recent low of 2.6% in July.

Remember, we learned earlier this month that the two other closely-watched inflation metrics moved in the wrong direction:

  • October CPI climbed to 2.6% year-over-year, up from 2.4% in September

  • October PPI climbed to 2.4% year-over-year, up from 1.8% in September

While each of the above numbers did come in as economists expected, that does not negate the reality that inflation in its many forms is moving further from policymakers’ target.

“The last mile towards price stability has been stymied by still ‘sticky’ inflation and bumps along road,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial.

Earlier this week, the minutes for the Federal Reserve’s November 6-7 meeting published. The summary suggested that policymakers are prepared to either slow down with interest-rate cuts or pause entirely.

That said, with the next rate decision due December 18, markets currently see about a one-in-three shot for the central bank to hold rates steady, down from roughly 44% a week ago.

Asset prices, meanwhile, have shrugged off all indication that the Fed’s inflation battle is moving in the wrong direction.

Stocks continue to hover at record highs, bond markets remain relatively unbothered, and bitcoin is still knocking on $100,000.

To David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation, inflation appears to have become less and less of an issue for investors, who have instead turned their focus to growth.

“The economy and stock market simply don’t require super-low [interest] rates anymore,” Russell said. “2.5% to 3% PCE might be good enough for now. Trade and tax policy will probably matter more than monetary policy going forward.”

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Elsewhere:

🛍️ Retailers are ready for Black Friday. Today’s bargain bonanza marks the unofficial start to holiday shopping season, and it remains the biggest day of the year for retail foot traffic. Analysts expect a robust turnout for consumers, though not as strong as last year’s as inflation remains a concern. (AP)

⏰ 24/7 stock trading is getting closer. The SEC approved an application from a startup to allow the trading of US securities 23 hours a day, five days a week. Weekends are still off limits, according to this ruling, but the movement still marks forward momentum for stocks to match the 24/7 access crypto traders already enjoy. (Barron’s)

⌚️ Customers are moving off luxury brands. Expensive handbags and other high-ticket designer items have lose about 50 million customers over the last two years. Meanwhile, second-hand websites have seen a jump in demand as they offer lower prices for premium products. Shoppers are also increasingly looking for brands that offer better value for their money. (WSJ)

Rapid-fire:

  • China’s push into electrifying its cars could bode poorly for gasoline demand worldwide (Bloomberg)

  • Mexico’s president is confident that there won’t be a tariff war with the US (AP)

  • The cost of a typical Thanksgiving dinner has dropped for the second year in a row (Yahoo Finance)

  • Shares of Dell and HP dropped Wednesday after both companies reported weak earnings, reinforcing the notion that the PC market is faltering (Bloomberg)

  • Remote work levels have dropped in 39 of the 40 largest US housing markets (ResiClub)

  • The CEO of the company behind Ikea says president-elect Trump’s tariffs could push store prices higher (CNN)

Last thing:

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