Good morning, investors. The S&P 500 hit a new record just before Nvidia reported blowout earnings. Coincidence? Maybe.

But as they say, the universe is rarely so lazy.

NVDA does it again

Is anyone surprised?

Nvidia once again reported record earnings and alleviated concerns that the AI trade was overextended.

The stock fell in after-hours trading, though it remains up 31% year-to-date and 41% over the last 12 months.

Here’s how the chipmaker did in its fiscal second quarter:

  • Revenue: $46.74 billion, above estimates for $46.06 billion

  • Data center revenue: $41.1 billion, below estimates for $41.3 billion

  • Earnings per share: $1.05, above estimates for $1.01

This marked the ninth consecutive quarter that year-over-year revenue has grown by more than 50%.

“If you were waiting for clear signs of a slowdown in AI, you didn’t exactly get it,” said Jake Behan, head of capital markets for Direxion. “This quarter shows Nvidia is still firmly in the game, navigating geopolitical turbulence and regulatory challenges while maintaining its leadership in the AI space.”

The company also approved a fresh $60 billion stock buyback program

Now, two critical details stand out from Nvidia’s results:

  • Nvidia reported record revenue without selling any H20 chips to China

  • Nvidia is projecting up to $55 billion in revenue next quarter, not including any H20 chip sales to China

For context, Nvidia reported $5.5 billion in revenue from China during the first quarter.

“We had a record quarter without China, and we just guided another record quarter without China,” CEO Jensen Huang said in an interview with Yahoo Finance Wednesday evening.

As it happens, the trade war uncertainty was effectively a non-factor for its earnings results.

“If you are bullish on US-China relations improving OR ANY level of chip sales to China resuming, the stock is cheap,” said Adam Kobeissi of The Kobeissi Letter.

Meanwhile, Huang also noted demand is “extraordinary” for Nvidia’s new Blackwell chips.

“Blackwell is the AI platform the world has been waiting for, delivering an exceptional generational leap — production of Blackwell Ultra is ramping at full speed,” he said in a statement.

The stock has returned nearly 1,000% since OpenAI launched ChatGPT in November 2022.

While some commentators have warned of froth, those returns haven’t actually kept up with its 12-month forward earnings estimates, as the chart from Matt Cerminaro illustrates.

Here’s how Wedbush analyst Dan Ives put it:

“With AI infrastructure investments continuing to grow with the company expecting between $3 trillion to $4 trillion in total AI infrastructure spend by the end of the decade, the chip landscape remains NVDA’s world with everybody else paying rent as more sovereigns and enterprises wait in line for the most advanced chips in the world.”

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Elsewhere

🏦 Fed Governor Cook is heading to court. Her lawyer is filing a lawsuit that could take months to be fully resolved, but near-term decisions may hold major repercussions for the central bank and its independence. Cook is expected to seek preliminary injunction that asks the court to permit her to stay in her job. (Axios)

📈 American Eagle stock is rallying again. After shareholders cheered its Sydney Sweeney marketing campaign, the retailer has tapped NFL star Travis Kelce to sell its jeans. Kelce this week announced his engagement to pop music phenom Taylor Swift. (Fast Company)

🚢 President Trump’s 50% tariffs on India have kicked in. Meanwhile, the European Union is looking to remove all tariffs on US industrial goods by the end of the week. That follows Trump’s warning that he could impose new levies on semiconductors in response to European digital services taxes. (Yahoo Finance)

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Rapid-fire

  • White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett said Fed Governor Cook should go on leave (CNBC)

  • The gap between Nvidia and the second-largest company is now $700 billion (WSJ)

  • Cracker Barrel stock surged after it reversed its decision to change its classic logo (Yahoo Finance)

  • This chart shows how AI is rewiring the economy (Blog)

  • Kohl’s stock surged 18% after its earnings beat and positive outlook (MarketWatch)

  • Japan’s 30-year bond yields surged to a fresh record high (Reuters)

  • Trump called for George Soros — Scott Bessent’s former Wall Street colleague — to face federal racketeering charges (Politico)

  • The “sell America” trade didn’t last for overseas investors (Opening Bell Daily)

  • A $9.9 billion portfolio manager shared an energy stock that’s up 52% since May 24 (Best Ideas Club)

Last thing

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About me

📰 I’m Phil Rosen, co-founder and editor-in-chief of Opening Bell Daily. I’ve published books, lived on three continents, and won awards for my journalism, which has appeared in Business Insider, Fortune, Yahoo Finance, Bloomberg and Inc. Magazine.

I write our flagship newsletter to prepare you for each trading day — unpacking markets, economic data and Wall Street with analysis you won’t find anywhere else.

Feedback? Reply to this email, ping me on X @philrosenn, or write me directly at [email protected].

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