Good morning, investors. The market rebounded Wednesday back toward all-time highs, which means the bears who claimed victory one day prior have gone back into hiding.
Not for nothing, the bounce to start the week is built on robust numbers.
Big Tech’s big time earnings
Wall Street has been raising its earnings forecasts all year but somehow corporate America keeps beating expectations anyway.
With nearly 80% of S&P 500 earnings in the books for the third quarter, the aggregate “blended” quarterly earnings per share have come in 6% higher compared to the quarter before at $70.65.
(Chart courtesy of Exhibit A)
Actual earnings have beat expectations by 10.5% on average over recent weeks, which marks the best margin in four years, according to data from Yardeni Research.
That’s also higher than the 8.2% beat in the second quarter.
(Chart courtesy of Exhibit A)
Meanwhile:
Earnings have grown at a double-digit rate over five of the last six quarters
Q3 is the ninth straight quarter of positive year-over-year earnings growth
10 of the 11 S&P 500 sectors have seen rising earnings so far this quarter
If the Energy sector finishes with positive earnings growth in the quarter, all 11 sectors would surpass the bar for the first time since 2021
None of that makes it sound like this is a good time for comparisons to the dot-com bubble.
(Chart courtesy of Exhibit A)
That said, robust earnings don’t negate the fact the market is undeniably top-heavy.
Many investors remain concerned about the collective weight of Big Tech, which now account for about 40% of the S&P 500’s market value.
Still, selling stocks out of a fear of froth is hard to justify when earnings continue to accelerate more than expected.
“[T]here is more earnings support for the current tech bubble than the one in the late 1990s,” said Ed Yardeni, founder of Yardeni Research. “There isn’t as much air in the current bubble. It isn’t likely to burst, though it might leak air from time to time.”
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Market snapshot
Interview
For the debut episode of our show FULL SIGNAL, I sat down with Mike Green, chief strategist at the $11 billion firm Simplify Asset Management, to discuss how inflated asset prices are masking risks in the economy, AI versus dot-com, criticisms of bitcoin and more.
Elsewhere
🚢 The Supreme Court is weighing Trump’s tariffs. Some of the justices are reportedly skeptical on the legal standing for the levies, and the court heard oral arguments on Wednesday. (Axios)
🚗 Tesla shareholders decide on Elon Musk’s pay package today. The new potential compensation could give the CEO stock worth $1 trillion and a 25% stake of the company. Shares would unlock based on Musk achieving extremely ambitious milestones. (WSJ)
📊 Private payrolls ticked up on October. The country’s private employers added 42,000 jobs last month for the first gain since July, though growth was muted overall, according to ADP. This data comes amid a blackout in government economic data. (Yahoo Finance)
🚀 Palantir hit $490 billion valuation with historic speed. No other company in the S&P 500 has reached the same milestone with as little in sales, and it’s now the 18th most valuable stock in America. (WSJ)
Rapid-fire
Robinhood stock climbed after the company crushed earnings and pushed total net revenue 100% higher from a year ago (Yahoo Finance)
Snap stock jumped 25% after announcing a $400 million Perplexity deal (CNBC)
Bank of America stock dropped during its first investor day in over a decade (Barron’s)
Pinterest stock collapsed 21% following its weak earnings results (CNBC)
Billionaire Carl Icahn took a 14.8% stake in auto company Monro and the stock soared (CNBC)
Fed Governor Miran says cutting rates again in December would be “reasonable” (Yahoo Finance)
Everyday Americans are telling the world rent is too high and groceries are too expensive (Pomp Letter)
This small-cap materials stock could soar 30% as global aircraft production ramps up (Best Ideas Club)
Thank you for reading. Join our Best Ideas Club to access our members-only stock tracker that’s beating the S&P 500 this year.
On this day
🗓November 6, 2001: The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate 50 basis points to 2.00% and the discount rate to 1.50%, marking the 10th cut of 2001 and the lowest policy level since 1961. Another rate cut would follow in December.
Last thing
As much as corporate headcount reductions are in the news of late, it is important to remember that the US labor market has seen an average of 1.6 million layoffs every month since 2022. Yes, every single month.
— #Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe (DataTrek) (#@DataTrekMB)
7:03 PM • Nov 5, 2025
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About me
📰 I’m Phil Rosen, co-founder and editor-in-chief of Opening Bell Daily. I’ve published books, lived on three continents, and won awards for my journalism, which has appeared in Business Insider, Fortune, Yahoo Finance, Bloomberg and Inc. Magazine.
I write our flagship newsletter to prepare you for each trading day — unpacking markets, economic data and Wall Street with analysis you won’t find anywhere else.
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