Good morning, investors. As much as investors may sweat the historical trend of a rocky September, the market is nonetheless coming off a banner stretch that deserves attention in its own right.

📺 Taking Stock: In my weekly segment with the New York Stock Exchange’s new show, we discussed the catalysts that could help markets buck the trend of September seasonality. You can watch the video here.

It’s now been 100 trading days since the S&P 500 fell to its low-point on April 8.

The benchmark index has gained more than 27% since that date and, depending who you ask, investors have either learned to ignore President Trump’s tariffs or they no longer believe they pose headwinds to equity markets.

Either way, that level of strength is rare, according to Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist for Carson Group.

When the S&P 500 gains 25% over 100 trading days — which has now happened 12 times since 1950 — stocks have been higher every instance after 3 months, and 10 of 11 times after 12 months.

Importantly, investors who sold their stocks through Liberation Day have been left with flat returns in 2025.

As the chart below illustrates, holding the S&P 500 through the sell-off has returned nearly 11%, while selling and missing the day after the April 8 bottom has led to returns of just 1.2%.

To market historians, the above data should not be surprising.

Markets have a seven-decade track record of bouncing back just as fast as they decline.

As it turns out, the rally over the last 100 trading sessions was particularly strong versus history, as the chart below illustrates.

To be sure, this strength will be tested by September’s negative seasonality, as we covered in Tuesday’s newsletter.

Dating back to 1950, September has seen an average decline of 0.68%.

However, three bullish catalysts remain in play this month:

“History has shown that when the broader market is trending higher into [September], seasonal weakness has not necessarily been a factor,” said Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist for LPL Financial.

“And if the market does suffer a drawdown this month, seasonal headwinds historically turn into tailwinds in October.”

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🚀 Alphabet stock jumped after-hours. Late Tuesday, a federal judge barred Google from paying to be the exclusive search engine on devices and browsers, and did not require the company to spin off its Chrome browser. (WSJ)

🚢 Scott Bessent said there’s a plan B to tariffs. The Treasury Secretary is confident the Supreme Court will back President Trump’s use of a 1977 emergency law to impose tariffs. But he said if not, the administration does have a backup plan. (Yahoo Finance)

📉 Warren Buffett is “disappointed” in Kraft Heinz split. Buffett is the largest shareholder of the stock, and he helped with the initial merger in 2015. He told CNBC Tuesday that undoing the merger won’t fix the company’s problems. (CNBC)

📈 Long-dated bond yields are ticking higher. High inflation, increased government spending, and elevated debt levels across the world have pushed yields on 30-year government bonds to historic levels across the US, Japan, Germany, and the UK. Demand for notes seems to be dwindling among traditionally big buyers. (WSJ)

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📰 I’m Phil Rosen, co-founder and editor-in-chief of Opening Bell Daily. I’ve published books, lived on three continents, and won awards for my journalism, which has appeared in Business Insider, Fortune, Yahoo Finance, Bloomberg and Inc. Magazine.

I write our flagship newsletter to prepare you for each trading day — unpacking markets, economic data and Wall Street with analysis you won’t find anywhere else.

Feedback? Reply to this email, ping me on X @philrosenn, or write me directly at [email protected].