Good morning, investors. Once again and as ever, President Trump is moving markets.
This time it wasn’t with a new stake in a company but a broader initiative that targets rare earths and critical minerals — and so impacts specific stock picks in that space.
Government-backed minerals
Wall Street didn’t wait for the fine-print on President Trump’s new rare-earth initiative.
Stocks tied to the sector popped Monday after the White House unveiled Project Vault, a $12 billion effort to stockpile strategic metals and reduce reliance on China.
Shares of MP Materials, USA Rare Earth, Idaho Strategic Resources and Critical Metals Corp. all jumped on the news before paring gains.
Notably, the VanEck Rare Earth & Strategic Metals ETF finished the day slightly negative, though it remains up double-digits to start the year.
For investors, the news de-risks a historically boom-bust sector, recasting speculative mining names as national security infrastructure.
While details remain sparse, the numbers suggest the administration is taking it seriously.
Roughly $1.67 billion in private capital will be paired with a $10 billion, 15-year loan from the US Export-Import Bank.
Unlike typical stockpiles, Project Vault involves private-sector participation. Manufacturers commit upfront to buying specific volumes at preset prices, and then must repurchase those same amounts in the future.
Markets signaled that they expect a new “White House put” — a synthetic floor on stock prices for the sector that protects companies from export controls or predatory pricing from Beijing.
While less explicit than previous decisions to take government stakes in public companies, Project Vault is the White House’s latest move that blurs the line between policy and direct market participation.
By absorbing the China risk, the US is effectively on track to re-rate speculative commodities into something closer to regulated utilities.
In all likelihood, Project Vault will evolve over time. Policymakers and the private sector still have to execute to make it a success.
That said, investors are nonetheless showing their confidence in the trade.
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Market snapshot
Elsewhere
📊Friday’s jobs report will get pushed. The partial government shutdown has led the Bureau of Labor Statistics to delay the January data release. Other economic reports could see a similar announcement in the coming days. (CNBC)
🚀SpaceX has acquired xAI. Elon Musk has reportedly combined his two companies, underscoring his vision for an AI-dominated world that’s too costly for any one entity to shoulder alone.
🤝The US and India reached a trade deal. President Trump announced the news after his call with Indian Prime Minister Modi. Baseline tariffs on goods from India will drop from 25% to 18% and India will stop buying Russian oil. (Yahoo Finance)
Rapid-fire
Palantir stock declined 29% in between its last two earnings reports (Bloomberg)
Disney beat earnings forecasts but saw weaker profits from a year ago (Yahoo Finance)
Two-thirds of home buyers purchased at a discount to the original price in 2025 (WSJ)
Target’s new CEO must figure out a sales slump and higher competition (CNN)
Gold and precious metals clawed back some of their losses to open the week (Bloomberg)
Oracle stock climbed after the company announced $50 billion fundraising plans (CNBC)
Fed nominee Kevin Warsh can’t single-handedly reverse the debasement trade (Opening Bell Daily)
On this day
🗓 February 3, 1690: The Massachusetts Bay Colony issued the first paper money in Colonial America to begin circulation.
Last thing
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