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Happy Friday! The last day-and-a-half have been a whirlwind of tariff updates and policy flip-flops, but that’s not so different from what we’ve seen the last few months. Today’s newsletter unpacks three charts that explain how that uncertainty has weighed on markets.

Start-and-stop tariffs persist

Investors looking for clarity on US markets haven’t caught a break all year.

In the span of 24 hours, three separate legal entities questioned the legality of President Trump’s tariffs. 

First, the Federal Court of International Trade concluded that the White House implemented its levies illegally.

An appeals court then pushed back on that, but shortly thereafter another trial court ruled that the tariff rollout indeed seemed suspect. 

The rulings will likely remain paused until the Supreme Court makes a final call, but the chaos has already spilled into markets in the form of choppy trading.

While US officials and judges scramble among themselves to assert authority, global investors have maintained the same view all year: There is too much uncertainty to buy American stocks.

Data tells the story. US markets have lagged those of every major country in 2025, barely eking out a positive gain on the year. 

The stock markets of Canada, China, the UK, France, Brazil and Germany, meanwhile, have climbed double digits.

“The main outcome [of the court rulings] is uncertainty,” said UBS chief economist Paul Donovan.

“Why would companies invest or hire in the US when taxes on their supply chains and on their customers’ spending power remain unclear?”

Indeed, the US has also underperformed on a regional level, with European, developed, and emerging markets all notching larger gains. 

Even when you compare the S&P 500 this year to its long-term historical average, the 2025 path has diverged dramatically.

While the benchmark index has climbed from its post-Liberation Day lows, it remains flat on the year. 

A typical calendar-year trajectory would put it at nearly a 5% return by now.

As Opening Bell Daily has reported all year, it’s not so much politics that are weighing on the stock market but a lack of clarity.

Now, with the Trump administration floating new backup plans for tariffs and legal workarounds, policy and geopolitics remain in flux. 

“We expect further market volatility ahead as headlines on both trade and fiscal policy emerge in the weeks and months ahead,” wrote UBS’ CIO of global equities, Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, in a note Thursday.

“We still expect US equities to rise over the next 12 months, but near-term gains this year are likely to be more limited.”

Market snapshot

Elsewhere

🤝 President Trump met with Fed Chair Powell. The two have swapped public barbs for months, and on Thursday Powell told the president he would not make monetary policy decisions based on politics. The president continues to believe the Fed is making a mistake by not cutting rates. (CNBC)

👀 The SEC dropped its lawsuit with Binance. That ends one of the last remaining crypto enforcement actions. Lawyers from the regulator and crypto exchange jointly moved to dismiss the case on Thursday, which was first brought in June 2023. (Reuters)

🎙️The Flyover Podcast delivers concise, unbiased daily news in politics, business, sports, and more — packed into just 15 minutes. Stream now on YouTube, Spotify, or Apple.

Rapid-fire

• Shares of Gap dropped double digits as the retailer warned tariffs could cost between $100-$150 million (CNBC)

• San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said interest rates are in a good place to continue to cool inflation (Bloomberg)

• Costco posted mixed earnings, hitting EPS estimates but missing on revenue (Yahoo Finance)

• Ulta Beauty raised its profit forecast for the year and reported a strong quarter, resilient demand (Reuters)

• A former Goldman Sachs banker was sentenced to two years in prison for his role in looting billions from a Malaysian wealth fund (WSJ)

• Dell stock climbed as it missed expectations but raised its full-year profit outlook (CNBC)

• AI is eating legacy media but it won’t stop there (Blog)

• Wall Street’s betting Nvidia can outrun geopolitical headaches (Opening Bell Daily)

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Last thing

About me

📰 I’m Phil Rosen, co-founder and editor-in-chief of Opening Bell Daily. I’ve published books, lived on three continents, and won awards for my journalism, which has appeared in Business Insider, Fortune, Yahoo Finance, Bloomberg and Inc. Magazine.

I write our flagship newsletter to prepare you for each trading day — unpacking markets, economic data and Wall Street with analysis you won’t find anywhere else.

Feedback? Reply to this email, ping me on X @philrosenn, or write me directly at [email protected].