Good morning, investors. It’s apparently the quietest time of the year for the stock market, according to the most widely-tracked fear gauge. That’s what we’re unpacking today — plus we’ve got an update on Nvidia-style deals with the White House, bitcoin’s record high, and a new interview with “Big Short” investor Danny Moses.

And separately, as promised, some notes and photos from my wedding two weeks ago!

No fear in sight

Investors are acting like risks have completely evaporated from the market. 

At least that’s what Wall Street’s fear gauge suggests.

The VIX plunged to its lowest point of 2025 on Wednesday, just above 14 — roughly 30% below its long-run average of 20 — while the S&P 500 hit a record high for the second day in a row.

There are a few reasons volatility has moderated and investors’ uncertainty has subsided. 

• July CPI effectively confirmed a September rate cut

• Reciprocal tariffs are in place, clarifying the trade policy outlook

• S&P 500 earnings have broadly beaten expectations

That mix has delivered the calmest market since late last year. Historically, a VIX below 20 points to muted uncertainty.

At 14, traders are pricing in almost no volatility at all. 

What could go wrong? 

Plenty, if you ask the bears. 

July’s jobs report, for one, laid bare just how much the labor market has deteriorated in recent months. If the August jobs report further confirms the slowdown, recession chatter could return to markets in force, bringing volatility with it.

Then there’s the Federal Reserve.

Traders currently put the odds of a September rate cut at 99%, according to CME data, but policymakers still haven’t fully committed. If the central bank surprises markets with no move next month, stocks would react violently. 

Historic stock market valuations, too, present a risk. 

As Opening Bell Daily covered Tuesday, 91% of Bank of America’s global fund manager survey respondents now consider US equities overvalued. 

Those results come as the S&P 500’s top 10 now account for 40.2% of the index’s value. 

It’s also worth noting that investors also seem to be discounting political risk.

Markets have largely ignored the Trump administration’s recent interventions surrounding the Fed and Bureau of Labor Statistics, but any sudden, material policy shifts could still change that.

The VIX isn’t an end-all indicator or crystal ball, but it does provide a useful snapshot of how investors view the current setup. 

And right now, despite the red flags, Wall Street seems convinced nothing can go wrong.

Market snapshot

A message from our partner, Amberdata:

The world’s largest financial institutions rely on Amberdata to power their digital asset strategies. Now you can access the exact same professional-grade data — without the enterprise contract.

Choose only what you need, pay with card, and start immediately. From real-time market moves to deep historical datasets, Amberdata gives you the intelligence to compete at the highest level.

Get access now.

Elsewhere

🤝 The US could do more Nvidia-style deals. That’s according to Treasury Secretary Bessent, who said the White House could make similar arrangements across other industries to the chip deal that gives the government a share of Nvidia’s revenue. (WSJ)

🍜 Fast-casual restaurant are seeing a slowdown. Cava, Chipotle, Sweetgreen, and other peers have reported a decline in foot traffic and weaker sales over the last quarter. As consumers cut back on lunch, investors have similarly trimmed their holdings in the sector. (CNBC)

📉 CoreWeave stock tumbled 20% Wednesday. Markets are trying to determine whether the company can fund its AI infrastructure expansion, as its earnings results included a wider-than-expected loss amid heavy spending. (Barron’s)

🤖 Mindstream is how 200,000+ readers keep on top of AI. The daily newsletter delivers actionable insights and news you need to know to stay ahead of the curve and maximize AI in your life. The best part? It’s completely free. Get smarter on AI in minutes a day.

Rapid-fire

• Total mortgage application volume jumped 11% from a week ago (CNBC)

• Scott Bessent is calling 150 basis points of rate cuts (Bloomberg)

• The crypto exchange Bullish debuted in US public markets on Wednesday (WSJ)

• Goldman Sachs’ economist plans to keep operating as before following Trump’s comments (Reuters)

• EJ Antoni, Trump’s pick to lead the Bureau of Labor Statistics, has a track record of backing Trump’s narrative for the economy (WSJ)

• Amazon is launching same-day food delivery to compete with Walmart, Instacart (Reuters)

• Investors just can’t wait for the Fed’s September rate cut (Opening Bell Daily)

Interview

I joined Danny Moses, the legendary investor from “The Big Short,” for a conversation on the new generation of retail investors, crypto, and how I got my start as a financial reporter and author. Full episode here!

Steal the best stocks from elite investors

Join our Best Ideas Club to gain access to our members-only stock tracker, where you can see the 26 names in our high-conviction portfolio that’s more than doubled the S&P 500 this year.

Last thing

📩 Want to get in front of 185,000+ investors who get this newsletter and the 350,000 professionals who can access it on Bloomberg Terminals? Hit reply to this email and tell us why we should work together.

About me

📰 I’m Phil Rosen, co-founder and editor-in-chief of Opening Bell Daily. I’ve published books, lived on three continents, and won awards for my journalism, which has appeared in Business Insider, Fortune, Yahoo Finance, Bloomberg and Inc. Magazine.

I write our flagship newsletter to prepare you for each trading day — unpacking markets, economic data and Wall Street with analysis you won’t find anywhere else.

Feedback? Reply to this email, ping me on X @philrosenn, or write me directly at [email protected].