Good morning, investors. To no surprise, the Federal Reserve did not change interest rates on Wednesday.

Arguably even less surprising, though, is what Jerome Powell decided to avoid talking about.

Mum’s the word

Jerome Powell had little to say about the biggest questions hanging over the Federal Reserve.

The central bank voted Wednesday to keep interest rates unchanged, with two governors dissenting in favor of a quarter-point cut.

Powell said the economy remains strong and that rate hikes were not on the table. 

The policy statement itself signaled growing confidence in the economic outlook.

Officials upgraded their assessment of activity to “solid,” citing robust GDD and a stabilizing labor market. 

The Fed chose not to cut rates on Wednesday (Chart courtesy of Exhibit A)

On topics de jour, Powell chose restraint.

He did not address the intensifying political conversation surrounding the central bank.

Asked about his appearance at Supreme Court arguments tied to President Trump’s attempt to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook, Powell offered a diplomatic explanation. 

The case, Powell said, is “perhaps the most important legal case in the Fed’s 113-year history.” 

And because former Chair Paul Volcker attended a similar case in the 1980s, Powell said “it’s precedented.”

The Atlanta Fed projects 5.4% GDP for the fourth quarter (Chart courtesy of Exhibit A)

Beyond that he entertained none of the political questions posed by reporters.

“I don’t want to get into this,” Powell said when asked about his own future after his term as chair ends in May.

On the topic of independence, he remained reticent.

He said he remains “strongly committed” to keeping the Fed insulated from other branches of government and keeping monetary policy out of the hands of elected officials. 

“We haven’t lost it,” Powell said. “I don’t believe we will.”

His lack of engagement on political matters is surely deliberate.

It reflects something like institutional minimalism — say as little as possible on politics and personalities, and deny reporters the chance to generate headlines.

Market snapshot

Elsewhere

🚗 Tesla stock rallied after beating on earnings. Investors have been looking for a non-auto catalyst for the stock, and the company said Optimus robots were on track for end-of-year production. (Electrek)

🤖 Meta also beat earnings expectations. The stock ticked higher shortly after the results, and the company said it expects first-quarter sales above $53.5 billion, ahead of estimates for $51.41 billion. (CNBC)

📊”Trump accounts” are gaining traction on Wall Street. JPMorgan and Bank of America said they will match the US government’s $1,000 contribution for thousands of their employees across the new tax-advantaged investment account initiative. (Yahoo Finance)

🇨🇳 China’s reach extends from boardrooms to trade blocs, steering investment, innovation and strategic alliances across the globe. Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist Andy Browne is writing all about it in Semafor China — be among the first to subscribe.

Interview

I sat down with legendary “Big Short” investor Danny Moses to get his favorite investment ideas for 2026, why he’s bullish on uranium, what he sees as the biggest risks in markets and much more.

Tune in on YouTube, Spotify, or Apple Podcasts.

Rapid-fire

  • Microsoft beat earnings estimates but the stock fell in after-hours trading (CNBC)

  • Amazon plans to cut 16,000 employees, bringing its total to 30,000 since October (Yahoo Finance)

  • President Trump warned Iran that a “massive Armada” is heading its way (CNBC)

  • Fidelity is launching a stablecoin (WSJ)

  • Gold climbed above $5,300 an ounce on Wednesday for the first time ever (Yahoo Finance)

  • Venezuela will need massive foreign investment to get back to 3 million barrels of crude oil a day (CNBC)

  • A weakening US dollar is helping to ease financial conditions (Opening Bell Daily)

This stock is up 89% since we published it

We sent a report on Seagate Technology to Best Ideas Club members in October and the stock has nearly doubled since then.

Get other high-conviction ideas at BestIdeasClub.com.

On this day

🗓️ January 29, 2001: The New York Stock Exchange switched from fractional to decimal price quotes for all of its listed assets, narrowing the bid-ask spreads and reducing trading costs.

Last thing

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