Happy New Year’s Eve, investors. Before we dive in, I want to say thank you for trusting our team for your markets news each morning.

I’ve sent more than 300 newsletters to your inbox this year — I hope you’ve enjoyed reading as much as I’ve enjoyed writing.

Some very big plans for the year ahead. I’m excited to share what’s next as soon as possible.

For one last time in 2025, let’s unpack some charts.

Gold won the year against bitcoin but the long-term scoreboard tells a different story. 

The precious metal’s recent dominance against its digital counterpart has raised criticism about bitcoin’s standing as a store of value and inflation hedge, though that conclusion largely hinges on when you start the clock. 

On a 12-month basis, there was no contest.

Gold surged more than 63% in 2025, while bitcoin is on pace to notch just its third negative annual return of the last decade.

That surprised many investors and crypto bulls given the new pro-bitcoin White House, easing regulatory conditions, institutional demand and the bitcoin ETF boom. 

At the same time, however, gold saw steady retail and institutional demand over the same period, as well as sustained purchases from global central banks and governments. 

Extend the time horizon to 18 months and gold extends its lead, nearly tripling bitcoin’s returns. 

And while the physical asset still outpaces the digital one over a two-year period, gold only pulled ahead in the final quarter of 2025, as the chart below illustrates. 

Bitcoin at one point had returned more than 160%, nearly double that of gold, but it has since pulled back to about a 94% return. 

Zoom out to five years and a different trend emerges. 

Bitcoin has gained over 200% since December 2020, while gold has gained 124%. 

One way to look at this data is to conclude that gold and bitcoin each offer a hedge against different risks on different timelines. 

Both act as safeguards to currency debasement, though they cater to distinct investment objectives.

Gold prioritizes stability during periods of economic stress, while bitcoin offers asymmetric upside tied to liquidity expansion and shifting monetary expectations. 

📊Fed minutes revealed a continued divide on policy. The central bank released its minutes from its highly divisive meeting earlier this month, and it showed a wide range of opinions that resulted in the 9-3 vote for a quarter-point rate cut. (CNBC)

❌ Warner Bros. plans to reject a takeover bid from Paramount. It will mark yet another rejection from Paramount Skydance, as the company has reportedly not increased its offer. (Bloomberg)

🏢 Elon Musk’s xAI keeps expanding. He announced Tuesday that the artificial intelligence startup bought a third building to expand its infrastructure, with the goal of raising its training capacity to nearly 2 gigawatts of compute power. (Reuters)

We just released our annual review for our Best Ideas Club members, unpacking the themes, sectors, winners and losers from our portfolio of 44 high-conviction stock picks.

🗓 December 31, 1904: The first New Year’s Eve celebration took place in Times Square, starting the ball-drop ceremony that takes place to this day.

📩 Want to get in front of 193,000+ investors who get this newsletter and the 350,000 professionals who can access it on Bloomberg Terminals? Reply to this email and tell us why we should work together.

📰 I’m Phil Rosen, co-founder and editor-in-chief of Opening Bell Daily. I’ve published books, lived on three continents, and won awards for my journalism, which has appeared in Business Insider, Fortune, Yahoo Finance, Bloomberg and Inc. Magazine.

I write our flagship newsletter and host our show, Full Signal, to prepare you for each trading day — unpacking markets, economic data and Wall Street with analysis you won’t find anywhere else.

Feedback? Reply to this email, ping me on X @philrosenn, or write me directly at [email protected].