Good morning, investors. We are one day away from a key jobs report that some strategists believe will determine whether the Fed cuts rates this month. Yet the government published jobs data on Wednesday that seems to have done the trick.

The Federal Reserve has all the evidence it needs for a September rate cut.

Data out Wednesday revealed the labor market crossed a key inflection point. For the first time since April 2021, the pool of job seekers in the US has surpassed the number of available jobs.

According to the JOLTS report for July:

For context, the ratio of job vacancies to unemployed workers hovered above 2.0 in the months after the pandemic.

Markets took the latest data as further confirmation that the central bank will lower interest rates in two weeks.

Odds for the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points on September 17 rose to 95.4% on Wednesday, up from 92.7% one day prior, according to CME data.

Meanwhile, traders on the prediction market Kalshi similarly raised their bets to 85%, up from 79.6% on Tuesday.

All of this also underscores how the headline unemployment rate of 4.2% is — while historically mild — masking the deeper cracks of the labor market.

As Opening Bell Daily readers know, that’s exactly what Fed Governor Christopher Waller has been warning about all summer.

In the years following the pandemic, employees had the upper hand against employers. Companies had to work hard to retain talent, which fueled wage growth and gave individuals unusual leverage in the job market.

A combination of high interest rates, the rise of AI, and shifting demographics have swung the pendulum back in 2025.

In theory, a cooling labor market should alleviate the Fed’s concerns about upward pressure on wages and so inflation.

That said, the shift also raises questions as to how much slack the economy can absorb before growth falters and recession fears return.

The Fed now has every reason to point to the jobs data as reason for a data-driven cut.

The labor market has flipped. Policymakers are running out of reasons to remain patient.

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📈 Alphabet stock hit a record high. Investors piled in on the news that the tech giant won’t have to divest its Chrome browser or Android operating system. Shares of Apple also climbed in tandem with Alphabet. (CNBC)

🪙 Trump-backed mining company American Bitcoin listed on Nasdaq. The bitcoin mining and treasury company surged more than 35% on its first day of trading, and it marked the second crypto venture listing for the Trump sons Eric and Donald Jr. this week. (Yahoo Finance)

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📰 I’m Phil Rosen, co-founder and editor-in-chief of Opening Bell Daily. I’ve published books, lived on three continents, and won awards for my journalism, which has appeared in Business Insider, Fortune, Yahoo Finance, Bloomberg and Inc. Magazine.

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