Good morning, investors. Two different American economies are taking shape right now.
Investors are thriving in the first one: Stocks, gold and crypto hover near records, corporate earnings are strong, and AI hype is real
Consumers are hurting in the second one: Dollar stores are seeing more customers, high borrowing costs are putting pressure on homebuyers and business owners, and affordability is strained
The labor market is what ties both together — it’s the biggest risk for investors, the Fed, and consumers.
Subscriber note: Markets are hitting new highs and — as Opening Bell Daily readers know — retail investors are leading the way.
On September 12th in NYC, Anthony Pompliano is hosting the Independent Investor Summit — a one-day event built for self-directed investors who want to hear directly from the people moving the markets.
Expect real-time insights, macro outlooks and fireside chats with top investors including Darius Dale, Jordi Visser, Jeff Park, Eric Jackson and more — I’ll be at the conference, too.
Opening Bell subscribers get 25% off General Admission tickets with code OBD25.
Losing confidence
The typical American is getting more nervous about keeping a job and they don’t like their chances for finding a new one.
That’s the takeaway from the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations for August, out Monday.
Among the findings:
Odds of finding another job after losing the current one fell 5.8% to 44.9%
Odds of leaving a job voluntarily in the next 12 months fell by 0.1% to 18.9%
Odds of losing one’s job in the next 12 months rose by 0.1% to 14.5%
Expectations that the unemployment rate will be higher this time next year rose 1.7% to 39.1%
Notably, that 44.9% figure for perceived probability of finding a new job is the lowest on record dating back to 2013 when the series started.
Separating the data into income brackets brings further nuance to the confidence story.
In August, six-figure earners saw the biggest drop in confidence for finding a job, falling nearly 15% compared to July.
That said, the $100,000 group remains about half as concerned about losing an existing job compared to those earning $50,000 or less per year.
Meanwhile, a greater share of high-income respondents also believe the unemployment rate will be higher in 12 months from the current level of 4.3%.
While Opening Bell Daily always takes survey results cautiously, the pessimism of this subjective data mirrors that of the softening objective data from last week:
The US now has more job seekers than available job openings
Job growth through 9 months of a year has not been this weak since 2009
Ex-healthcare roles, private sector job growth has been negative on a 3-month rolling basis
There are now more unemployed people than available jobs for the first time in 4 years
Investors, the Fed and everyday consumers will be watching for the August inflation report on Thursday.
Yet many strategists and policymakers (and newsletter writers) no longer believe hot prices pose nearly the risk as a collapsing labor market.
“The Fed has so far been more worried about inflation than the labor market,” wrote Bank of America strategists in a note after the dismal August jobs results.
“But Powell's speech indicated a potential regime shift toward prioritizing the labor market. Today's jobs data should cement that shift.”
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Market snapshot
Elsewhere
🚀 Robinhood stock jumped 15.8% Monday. The rally stemmed from its new inclusion in the S&P 500. The mobile marketing provider AppLovin also climbed with its inclusion in the benchmark index. (Investopedia)
🪵 Lumber prices won’t stop falling. Futures for the commodity are down 23% since August, and wood markets have seen extra volatility lately due to a soft housing market and trade uncertainty. Historically, falling lumber prices is a leading indicator for economic activity. (WSJ)
📉 10-year yields have dipped in a big way. Treasury investors have turned bullish and dragged long-term bond yields to their lowest intraday level in nearly six months. That comes ahead of new jobs and inflation data over the next several days. (Barron’s)
📊 Dan Ives-backed Eightco sees stock soar 3,000%. The company announced plans to pursue a Worldcoin treasury strategy — similar to a bitcoin treasury company but with the token used by the World Network, which was co-founded by Sam Altman. (Yahoo Finance)
Rapid-fire
The Nasdaq hit a fresh record high ahead of the PPI and CPI inflation reports due this week (Yahoo Finance)
Prediction markets see 35% odds for exactly three cuts in 2025 (Kalshi)
30-year mortgage rates fell near the lowest level in a year at 6.28% (Yahoo Finance)
President Trump was at the US Open with Rolex’s CEO ahead of the onset of 39% tariffs on Swiss watch imports (CNBC)
The pessimists have been wrong all year (Pomp Letter)
Bank of America changed its view from zero rate cuts to two in 2025 (Opening Bell Daily)
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang will join Trump in the UK next week (CNBC)
Citi slashed its price target for Nvidia to $200 from $210 (Barron’s)
Goldman Sachs’ chief economist said the US economy is in “stall speed” (Yahoo Finance)
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Last thing
The share of consumers who don't expect to have the ability to make a minimum debt payment in the next 3 months has been falling this year, but rose sharply in August per the NY Fed
— #Kevin Gordon (#@KevRGordon)
8:29 PM • Sep 8, 2025
About me
📰 I’m Phil Rosen, co-founder and editor-in-chief of Opening Bell Daily. I’ve published books, lived on three continents, and won awards for my journalism, which has appeared in Business Insider, Fortune, Yahoo Finance, Bloomberg and Inc. Magazine.
I write our flagship newsletter to prepare you for each trading day — unpacking markets, economic data and Wall Street with analysis you won’t find anywhere else.
Feedback? Reply to this email, ping me on X @philrosenn, or write me directly at [email protected].