Happy Friday, investors. Wall Street is convinced that the Fed is cutting rates next week, and that’s help buoy stock prices even as a confusing batch of economic data and headlines attempt to spook investors out of the market.

The stock market has faced no shortage of stress tests but nothing has derailed its momentum.

Days ahead of what will likely be a quarter-point rate cut from the Federal Reserve, the S&P 500 remains within 1% from its all-time high. 

That’s despite fears of an AI bubble, more signs of weakness in the labor market, looming questions surrounding succession at the Fed, and a Supreme Court battle over tariffs. 

It’d be natural to expect that cocktail of obstacles to weigh on asset prices. 

That hasn’t happened. 

In fact, even the equal-weighted S&P 500 index remains within striking distance of its October 29 record high, which suggests that the market’s resilience is broad based. 

One factor at play, as Opening Bell Daily has covered, is that “bad” economic news currently offers a boon to stocks because it raises the likelihood of dovish monetary policy.

On Wednesday, payrolls processor ADP reported private companies shed 32,000 jobs in November, and that announcement pushes benchmark stock indexes higher earlier in the week.

Meanwhile, sentiment data — which often moves inversely to affordability — has cratered even as year-over-year inflation has cooled. 

That, too, has had minimal impact on asset prices.

It’s possible that bullish positioning for year-end is helping the bull-run continue. 

Institutional investors, wary of tariffs and economic uncertainty, have been more hesitant to buy the dip in recent months compared to the retail crowd. 

Now that earnings strength, seasonality, falling volatility and even tailwinds out of Washington point to higher asset prices ahead, Wall Street firms may be feeling the pressure to chase performance before the calendar turns.

That combination, it seems, creates a resilient tape.

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📊Markets await new inflation data. The personal consumption expenditures price index is due Friday morning and marks the first key inflation metric since before the government shutdown. Economists expect it the metric to hit 2.8%, up from 2.7% in August. (Barron’s)

📉 The labor market is sending more mixed signals. Claims for unemployment benefits fell to a three-year low, yet layoffs climbed in November with a 24% jump year-over-year, according to Challenger data. (Yahoo Finance)

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I visited the New York Stock Exchange to discuss the outlook for stocks in 2026, Jerome Powell’s successor at the Fed, bitcoin, and more.

🗓December 5, 1996: Fed Chair Alan Greenspan delivered his famous warning about stretched asset prices as “irrational exuberance” at an event in Washington.

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📰 I’m Phil Rosen, co-founder and editor-in-chief of Opening Bell Daily. I’ve published books, lived on three continents, and won awards for my journalism, which has appeared in Business Insider, Fortune, Yahoo Finance, Bloomberg and Inc. Magazine.

I write our flagship newsletter and host our show, Full Signal, to prepare you for each trading day — unpacking markets, economic data and Wall Street with analysis you won’t find anywhere else.

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