Good morning, investors. Everyone knows markets tend to rhyme across history and yet market participants so often exhibit short memories. Tariff fears from earlier this month seem to have been forgotten, according to the market, and traders seem squarely focused on a cheery outlook once again.
What market crash?
Stocks are back near record highs once again.
Investors who didn’t panic sell through President Trump’s tariff-related comments this month have almost recouped all their losses, with the S&P 500 within half a percent of its all-time close from earlier this month.
And that includes last week’s regional bank scare.
There are a few reasons why the minor sell-off that began with trade war threats on China has been erased:
Promising developments for US-China relations
A wave of stronger-than-expected corporate earnings
Investors’ realization that short-term noise won’t derail the structural bull market
As Opening Bell Daily readers know, a similar pattern unfolded during April’s Liberation Day sell-off.
Investors who didn’t panic-sell in April are beating those who did by double digits (Chart courtesy of Exhibit A)
Remember, the S&P 500 has endured two bear markets and two corrections since 2020.
And only one of those can be tied to an actual recession, which occurred at the start of a once-in-a-generation pandemic.
The economy has otherwise grown consistently over the last five years, and equities and earnings have strengthened in kind.
Here’s how veteran strategist Ed Yardeni, founder of Yardeni Research, explains it:
“Corrections tend to occur when investors fear a recession that doesn’t happen. Bear markets tend to be caused by recessions. Currently, the economy remains resilient, and a recession is unlikely, in our opinion.”
In effect, social media posts coming out of the White House — market-moving as they may be — do not exactly impact the structural tailwinds driving financial markets:
Accelerating AI boom
Falling recession odds
Multiple expected Fed rate cuts
Rising economic growth forecasts
Meanwhile, the government shutdown has delayed recent labor market data, leaving investors with one less potentially negative catalyst to trade off.
The Atlanta Fed projects 3.8% GDP for the third quarter (Chart courtesy of Exhibit A)
Indeed, recent headwinds in mind, the team at UBS Global Wealth Management maintains that the bull market is still intact.
“Investors should ensure they have adequate allocation to equities,” said UBS’ Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, chief investment officer for the Americas and global head of equities.
Today’s letter is brought to you by BitcoinIRA!
Smart investors use BitcoinIRA:
Tax Savings: When you trade in an IRA, you don't have to pay capital gains taxes that can be as high as 37%
Top-Level Security: Assets are custodied with a US based custodian and insured up to $250M²
World Class Customer Service: BitcoinIRA’s specialists will help guide you through every step of the process
P.S. As an Opening Bell Daily reader, you can earn up to $500 in rewards* when you add funds to your account.
Market snapshot
Elsewhere
🤝US and Australia signed a critical minerals deal. It includes plans for projects worth a total of $8.5 billion, and the US will invest in rare earths processing in Australia as part of the agreement. (CNBC)
🌍 An Amazon Web Services outage hobbled the internet. Disruptions hit websites ranging from commerce and airlines to social media apps, impacting millions of users around the world. (WSJ)
🏦 Big banks say Wall Street is doing just fine. A stellar slate of earnings from major financial firms pointed to strong credit portfolios and consumer resilience. Even a pair of concerning regional bank disclosures last week haven’t discouraged investors. (Barron’s)
Rapid-fire
President Trump is set to meet President Xi later this month for trade talks (Yahoo Finance)
Apple stock hit a new record high following reports of strong iPhone sales (WSJ)
Shares of Cleveland Cliffs soared 21% Monday after the company announced fresh efforts into rare earth mining (Yahoo Finance)
Gold prices continued their record-smashing run on Monday (Barron’s)
The government shutdown is now the third-longest federal work stoppage ever (Yahoo Finance)
Bitcoin could see a rotation of capital out of gold markets (Pomp Letter)
Rising volatility is the latest bullish signal for the equity market (Opening Bell Daily)
On this day
🗓 October 21, 1907: The board of Knickerbocker Trust Company asked its president Charles T. Barney to resign, and a bank run began shortly afterward. US stocks tumbled for their eighth-largest drop in history.
Last thing
The Buffett Indicator just hit 217%-
69% above its long-term trend.
That means the total U.S. stock market is valued at 2.17× GDP...
— #Dividendology (#@dividendology)
4:30 PM • Oct 20, 2025
About me
📰 I’m Phil Rosen, co-founder of Opening Bell Daily. I’ve published books, lived on three continents, and won awards for my journalism, which has appeared in Business Insider, Fortune, Yahoo Finance, Bloomberg and Inc. Magazine.
I write our flagship newsletter to prepare you for each trading day — unpacking markets, economic data and Wall Street with analysis you won’t find anywhere else.
Feedback? Reply to this email, ping me on X @philrosenn, or write me directly at [email protected].