Good morning, investors. Late Sunday, Senate lawmakers reached a deal to end the government shutdown, according to a report from Politico.

The new sense of clarity from Washington turned markets green overnight, but more chop awaits in the days ahead.

Everyday Americans’ next round of stimulus checks could be sourced directly from tariffs.

That’s according to President Trump, who floated the idea of a “tariff dividend” that would deliver checks of $2,000 for eligible Americans, pulling from a revenue stream that had been earmarked for paying down government debt. 

“People that are against tariffs are fools!” he wrote Sunday on Truth Social. “We are now the richest, most respected country in the world, with almost no inflation, and a record stock market price. A dividend of at least $2000 a person (not including high income people!) will be paid to everyone.” 

The administration has forecasted that it expects to collect upward of $1 trillion in tariffs by June 2026, though some commentators remain skeptical of those projections. 

For context, estimates for annualized tariff revenue so far hovers closer to $400 billion, and that could still change depending on what the Supreme Court decides. 

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, for his part, said Sunday that the $2,000 dividend idea could come in various forms, such as with a tax cut. 

In any case, asset prices have hit record after record this year. 

Even though Wall Street is already riding momentum from Fed rate cuts, strong earnings and an accelerating AI boom, stimulus checks could provide yet another catalyst.

Recall that in the first year of the COVID pandemic, the US government sent three rounds — $1,200, $600, and $1,400 — of checks to eligible Americans, fueling risk appetite.

A 2023 working paper out of NYU Stern estimated that $100 billion of the $814 billion distributed ended up in the stock market.

Researchers at the time concluded that both the news of stimulus checks and the actual money hitting bank accounts provided a positive double-whammy for asset prices.

Indeed, from the time the first payments hit in April 2020 to the final round in March 2021, the S&P 500 rose roughly 40% alongside Fed easing. 

If the new “dividends” have even half the impact of the pandemic stimulus checks, markets could blow past Wall Street’s most optimistic targets. 

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📉Unofficial labor market keeps cooling. Even without the Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers, alternative sources like ADP and Indeed all point to shrinking job openings and slowing momentum in hiring. (TKer)

📊Earnings have been great this quarter. Four of five S&P 500 companies beat earnings estimates, but Wall Street hasn’t been rewarding them for their performance. The benchmark index has only climbed 1.3% since October 14. (WSJ)

📺 Tune in to my new show, Full Signal. If you like this newsletter, you’ll love our new podcast — I’m doing in-depth interviews and market analysis with the brightest investors and strategists across Wall Street. Subscribe on Spotify, YouTube, and Apple.

🗓 November 10, 1965: The New York Stock Exchanged opened late at 11:05 AM due to a blackout across the Northeast that started the evening before. Trading had to be put on hold that morning until lower Manhattan regained power.

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📰 I’m Phil Rosen, co-founder and editor-in-chief of Opening Bell Daily. I’ve published books, lived on three continents, and won awards for my journalism, which has appeared in Business Insider, Fortune, Yahoo Finance, Bloomberg and Inc. Magazine.

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