Good morning! I’m excited to share that our team is launching a new show today. It’s called Full Signal.

Every week, I’ll share my take on markets using data you won’t find anywhere else, paired with Opening Bell’s signature charts and exclusive interviews.

If you’re reading this, you’re already an independent thinker and optimist — exactly who we’re making this show for.

See for yourself.

Be sure to subscribe on YouTube and tune in to our first episode airing Wednesday.

Everyone recognizes that the job market is losing momentum but it’s hard to find consensus as to why.

The reality is that there’s no single reason creating this cocktail of labor market headwinds.

Instead, there seem to be three forces colliding at once.

The labor market has been what’s pushing the Federal Reserve to cut rates in 2025, but it’s been cracking ever since the COVID hiring surge started to lose steam.

The number of available job openings exploded to over 12 million at the peak of the boom in 2022, and employees had the upper hand against employers.

At the time, it was easy to job-hop. Companies struggled to retain talent.

But much of that hiring turned out to be temporary, a consequence of overstimulated demand and government stimulus checks.

Once spending patterns normalized, employers realized they had hired ahead of sustainable growth, explaining the recent pullback.

The same chart lines up with the Fed’s rate-hiking cycle that started in March 2022.

Rising interest rates forced companies to rethink expansion plans and slow down hiring plans.

Tighter monetary policy marked a turning point for the labor market that had been so employee-friendly.

While the central bank at the time adjusted rates to combat inflation, it also sparked the beginning of a steady, two-year decline in job openings.

Versions of the chart below have made rounds on social media over the last week, but as the above two charts illustrate, AI is only one component of a three-legged stool.

It’s true that job openings have fallen off sharply since OpenAI released ChatGPT and kicked off the AI revolution, but that happened in concert with rising rates and a structural labor market retrenchment coming out of the pandemic.

That said, AI tools are nonetheless enabling businesses to increase their output with fewer people — opening the door as both an excuse for layoffs as well as legitimate justification.

What’s more, the new technology is reshaping hiring priorities even for companies that haven’t trimmed headcount.

Over time, it’s possible that meaningful productivity gains from AI work to lower the demand for labor even as economic growth accelerates.

Smart investors use BitcoinIRA:

Take 3 minutes to open your account and access over 75 cryptocurrencies in your IRA.

P.S. As an Opening Bell Daily reader, you can earn up to $500 in rewards* when you add funds to your account.

📦 Amazon signed a deal with OpenAI. It’s a 7-year $38 billion agreement will allow the ChatGPT creator to access Nvidia chips housed within Amazon Web Services. Shares of Amazon climbed 4.6%. (Yahoo Finance)

🏦 Fed Governor Lisa Cook gave a new speech. In her first policy comments since her spat with President Trump, she said she remains undecided on a December move, and that she agreed with the previous rate cut. (CNBC)

📉 The ISM Survey remains weak. Pockets of strength in aerospace and AI couldn’t prevent an overall decline in the index from a month ago, with economic uncertainty still weighing on the manufacturing industry. (Barron’s)

🤖 Mindstream is how 200,000+ readers keep on top of AI. The daily newsletter delivers actionable insights and news you need to know to stay ahead of the curve and maximize AI in your life. The best part? It’s completely free. Get smarter on AI in minutes a day.

🗓 November 4, 2016: The S&P 500 dropped for nine sessions in a row to mark its worst stretch in more than three decades, fueled by an elevated VIX and election-season jitters.

📩 Want to get in front of 190,000+ investors who get this newsletter and the 350,000 professionals who can access it on Bloomberg Terminals? Reply to this email and tell us why we should work together.

📰 I’m Phil Rosen, co-founder and editor-in-chief of Opening Bell Daily. I’ve published books, lived on three continents, and won awards for my journalism, which has appeared in Business Insider, Fortune, Yahoo Finance, Bloomberg and Inc. Magazine.

I write our flagship newsletter to prepare you for each trading day — unpacking markets, economic data and Wall Street with analysis you won’t find anywhere else.

Feedback? Reply to this email, ping me on X @philrosenn, or write me directly at [email protected].