Happy Friday! Investors tend to know the nuances of policy better than policymakers because they have skin in the game. Case in point, solar stocks tell the story of what traders are paying attention to in the White House’s latest bill.

Not so beautiful for rooftop solar

Rooftop solar has long been pitched as a key to the clean energy revolution.

But apparently, markets don’t believe the industry can survive without federal support. 

On Thursday, shares of leading US solar companies collapsed after the House passed President Trump’s tax and spending bill, which includes cuts to key climate incentives from the Biden administration. 

In the span of a single trading day: 

• Sunrun: -37.05%

• SolarEdge: -24.67%

• Enphase: -19.63%

• NextEra: -6.43%

A sector-specific sell-off like this isn’t exactly commonplace volatility. 

Indeed, the scope of the bill took investors by surprise — it would gut the 30% tax credit for rooftop solar installations, repeal clean-energy grants, and dismantle portions of the Inflation Reduction Act. 

The timelines, too, look punishing enough to spook markets. Projects must begin within 60 days of the bill’s passage and wrap up by 2028 to qualify for any remaining subsidies.

Industry watchers say that effectively compresses a decade of acceleration into just a few years. 

That is an impossible pace for most firms and homeowners.

The rooftop solar model has long relied on a simple equation to stay viable. It’s always needed a combination of Wall Street financing, federal tax credits and long-term utility savings. The president’s big beautiful bill aims to yank one of those pillars out.

Investors, evidently, aren’t confident that the economics can hold up without the support of the government.  

To be sure, Trump’s bill could mobilize opposition in the Senate and renew clean-energy lobbying. 

Even if rooftop solar stocks regain some momentum, though, investors are now acutely aware of the industry’s fragility. 

As far as markets are concerned, residential solar isn’t an industry that’s going to stand on its own anytime soon.

Market snapshot

Elsewhere

📰 President Trump’s tax bill advanced from the House. It squeaked by in a narrow vote, and it’s set to move on to the Senate. Bond investors may not like it, but the bill is likely going to get more expensive from here. (Barron’s)

📈 Another bank just raised its S&P 500 target. UBS raised its year-end target from 5,800 to 6,000 on Thursday, and it initiated a June 2026 target of 6,400. That represents about a 9.5% upside from the last closing price. (Reuters)

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Rapid-fire

• The Supreme Court strongly suggested Fed officials would have greater protection against being fired by a president (CNBC)

• The Treasury intends to stop putting new pennies into circulation as early as 2026 (Barron’s)

• Anthropic launched Claude 4, it’s most powerful AI model yet (CNBC)

• The US is considering withdrawing thousands of troops from South Korea (WSJ)

• Zillow projects that US home prices will fall 0.9% between April 2025 and April 2026 (ResiClub)

• A weak auction for 20-year Treasury notes spooked investors (Opening Bell Daily)

• OnlyFans’ owner is in talks to sell to an investor group at roughly an $8 billion valuation (Reuters)

Last thing

About me

📰 I’m Phil Rosen, co-founder and editor-in-chief of Opening Bell Daily. I’ve published books, lived on three continents, and won awards for my journalism, which has appeared in Business Insider, Fortune, Yahoo Finance, Bloomberg and Inc. Magazine.

I write our flagship newsletter to prepare you for each trading day — unpacking markets, economic data and Wall Street with analysis you won’t find anywhere else.

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