Good morning, investors. The Dow has fallen for three trading days in a row against a backdrop of $100 oil prices, elevated bond yields, and ramped-up Treasury bond buybacks.

But the news of the day came out of Cupertino.

Apple is wasting no time moving on from the Tim Cook era. 

But its first flagship product under new CEO John Ternus looks just like previous launches with Tim Cook’s playbook.

On Wednesday, the company revealed the iPhone Duo, a $1,999 foldable smartphone that arrives six years after Samsung invented the category. 

Ternus — who is billed as an engineer and product guy — said the foldable device will be a cleaner version of existing foldables on the market, which he likened to “two phones awkwardly stuck together.”

That pitch has worked for Apple before. It showed up late to MP3 players, smartphones, tablets and watches before dominating each of those verticals under Cook.

The stock finished effectively flat on the day with more than double the trading volume, which suggests investors were indeed torn on the new product announcements.

Foldables, however, make up roughly 2% of the global smartphone market, so Apple actually doesn’t have to sell that many phones to become a titan in the vertical. 

Counterpoint Research forecasts that Apple could sell up to 6 million iPhone Duos in 2026, which would give the company a 25% share of the market, second behind Samsung’s 38%. 

That would work out to some $14 billion in revenue, or roughly 3% of Apple’s revenue. Preorders begin in October, so any new dollars won’t be recognized until the new year.

Ternus, perhaps characteristically, is leaning into a problem made for an engineer.

He was dismissive of competitor’s foldable devices and he believes his team has built better hardware. 

While foldables won’t likely become a massive business line, it’s nonetheless an encouraging sign for a company that is paradoxically both beating the S&P 500 this year and still trying to shake off its reputation as a loser of the AI race. 

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📉 Apple stock fell after the company revealed its first foldable iPhone. The $2,000 iPhone Duo pairs a 7.6-inch inner display with a 5.4-inch cover screen and ships as early as October. (Yahoo Finance)

🛢 US strikes on Iranian tankers pushed Brent past $100 for the first time since July. Crude flow through the Strait of Hormuz has collapsed from 9 million barrels a day in late August to under 2 million. (CNBC)

🚀 Meta rallied 6.5% after launching its personal AI agent, Muse. The chat-based assistant handles messaging, scheduling, and purchases across a free tier plus $20 and $100 monthly plans. (Yahoo Finance)

Jared Dillian is a veteran investor and the author of the Daily Dirtnap financial newsletter and the new book The Awesome Portfolio. We sat down to discuss why he’s positioned for an AI market bubble, his bullish view on bonds, and how bitcoin and gold fit into a modern portfolio.

Tune in on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or YouTube.

🗓 September 10, 2020: The Nasdaq fell 2% and the Dow dropped 405 points as a stimulus-bill stall and US-China tensions fueled a tech sell-off. The move extended the fastest correction ever in a bull market's opening months.

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