Good morning, investors. Bitcoin is now the seventh largest asset in the world with a $2.5 trillion market cap, and bullish investors expect that to rise in the coming weeks. But even if it sees a huge spike before Christmas, that shouldn’t surprise anyone who knows their crypto history.

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Bitcoin is having a moment and it’s tracking its own history.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency hit a new all-time high on Monday above $126,000, bringing its year-to-date gain to 35%.

Nearly one-third of that has happened in October, a month fittingly dubbed “Uptober” among crypto investors for its strong seasonal momentum.

Bitcoin has closed higher across 9 of the last 10 Octobers with an average return of more than 21.4%. 

As it turns out, that strength applies to the entire fourth quarter. 

Over the last 10 years, bitcoin has seen an average return of 59.6% during the final three months of the year, nearly double the returns of the second-best quarter.  

While asset prices have climbed across the board this year due to Fed rate cuts, dwindling recession fears, and investor optimism, bitcoin in particular is benefitting from record crypto ETF inflows, institutional enthusiasm and a pro-bitcoin White House — all of which make the bear case hard to articulate. 

Bitcoin ETFs, for instance, have seen more than $3.2 billion in net inflows within the first week of October alone. 

Meanwhile, new concerns on the government shutdown and old worries about currency debasement and fiscal deficits have pushed the “debasement trade” to the forefront.

Among other recent signals: 

Unlike past cycles, bitcoin now has Wall Street’s full infrastructure behind it, as the table from Amberdata illustrates.

Institutional funds are absorbing billions in capital flows, public companies are adding it to their balance sheets, and the political tide has moved in its favor.

If the historical playbook holds, the coming weeks and months could bring plenty more record highs. 

Smart investors use BitcoinIRA:

Take 3 minutes to open your account and access over 75 cryptocurrencies in your IRA.

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📈 AMD stock has a record day. The chipmaker signed a multi-year deal with OpenAI to supply it with AI chips, and shares soared more than 24%. The agreement could ultimately give OpenAI a 10% stake in AMD. (CNBC)

📊 Trilogy Metals stock doubled after the White House announced a stake of 10% late Monday. The Vancouver mining company holds interest in two Alaska mineral projects. The US last week said it would take a stake in another Canadian mine developer. (WSJ)

🚀 Wall Street is raising its S&P 500 targets again. Yardeni Research raised its target back to 7,000, while Evercore ISI reiterated its base-case target of 7,750 for 2026. (Yahoo Finance)

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📰 I’m Phil Rosen, co-founder of Opening Bell Daily. I’ve published books, lived on three continents, and won awards for my journalism, which has appeared in Business Insider, Fortune, Yahoo Finance, Bloomberg and Inc. Magazine.

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