Happy Friday, investors. With the Fed news behind us, this morning we are looking forward to what will be the first full earnings season since the conflict in Iran started.

Let’s dive in.

Wartime earnings

The Iran conflict could be just weeks away from showing up in Corporate America.

The oil shock from the war has already forced some companies to warn investors of new headwinds, but the real damage won't be visible until April, when earnings season kicks off.

Brent crude has surged more than 54% since the conflict began at the end of February, and Wall Street analysts expect that pressure to cut global economic growth by 0.3% and nudge inflation higher in the coming months.

A worsening macro backdrop makes the outlook messier on a company-level.

Honeywell on Tuesday said that supply disruptions in the Middle East could shave as much as 9% off first-quarter revenue.

“It’s a high single digit [percentage] of our revenue. It’s again a tactical issue. It’s not that we’re losing volume, but if I can’t physically send things, it can have a [transitory] impact,” CEO Vimal Kapur said.

“But otherwise, the quarter is trending as we have guided, and we think the year is also shaping up quite well.”

Shares of Honeywell have dropped more than 8% since the Iran war started.

FedEx, meanwhile, reported strong earnings Thursday after the bell though it remains uniquely exposed to global supply chain snags.

The stock — which hit an all-time high the day before the Iran war — has dropped roughly 10% in three weeks.

Delta, too, tells the same story from the opposite side. The airline raised its first-quarter revenue guidance from $15 billion to $15.3 billion despite absorbing higher costs for jet fuel.

That resilience, however, is unique to Delta for its scale and brand.

Smaller or more budget-friendly airline carriers will have to absorb the same higher fuel bills without the same cushion on the balance sheet.

This is the pattern to look for across sectors once earnings season starts:

With crude prices still elevated and no obvious sign of de-escalation, April could provide the first clear picture of what the Iran war actually costs Corporate America.

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🛢 Iran knocked out 17% of Qatar's LNG export capacity. Repairs will reportedly take three to five years, dealing the worst blow yet to global energy supply since the war began. (CNBC)

📉 JPMorgan cut its year-end S&P 500 target to 7,200 from 7,500. The firm said markets are too complacent about the oil shock and that investors are pricing in a quick war resolution. (Investing.com)

🚀 Micron crushed earnings with revenue up 196% from a year ago. It guided next quarter to $33.5 billion, implying another 40% sequential jump. The stock fell anyway as investors took in its higher capital spending plans. (CNBC)

I sat down with Robinhood’s chief investment officer Stephanie Guild to unpack the specific stocks and ideas that have fueled Robinhood Strategies' explosive growth since launching 10 months ago, what retail investors are buying right now and why she's reconsidering her S&P 500 call.

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🗓 March 20, 2000: Barron's published its landmark "Burning Up" cover story warning that internet companies were running out of cash fast. The article helped accelerate the dot-com selloff that wiped out more than $5 trillion in Nasdaq market value.

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