Good morning, investors. The latest jobs report comes due at 8:30 AM ET and analysts expect the US added 55,000 jobs in April.
If those numbers turn out true, that would tell a story of a cooling but ultimately stable labor market, even with the headlines of AI-driven layoffs.
For today’s edition, we’re unpacking two barometers flashing the same warning on consumers.
Spending slowdown
It’s no accident that demand for Big Macs and home appliances are declining at the same time.
Pressure on consumer spending now spans income tiers. McDonald’s and its low-income customers as well as Whirlpool and its middle-income homeowners both warned of deterioration.
McDonald’s CEO Chris Kempczinski said Wednesday that the consumer environment isn’t improving and it might even “be getting a little bit worse.”
Whirlpool’s executives went further, saying that demand for US appliances has not been this weak since the 2008 recession.
The numbers reinforce the sentiment:
McDonald’s US same-store sales rose 3.9%, below estimates for 4.2%
McDonald’s visits from householders earnings under $45,000 a year declined
Whirlpool reported a revenue drop of nearly 10% year-over-year
Whirlpool’s North America revenue for major appliances dropped 7.5% year-over-year
“The consumer isn't doing these discretionary, big ticket purchases,” Whirlpool CFO Roxanne Warner told Yahoo Finance. “But [they are] continuing to buy the small items.”
Indeed, Whirlpool cut full-year guidance in half, suspended its dividend payment for the first time in five decades and prioritized paying down $900 million in debt.
For public company executives who fall under close scrutiny from investors, it’s notable that they invoked a worsening consumer outlook and the 2008 financial crisis the same week.
To be sure, S&P 500 earnings have done the opposite of reinforcing bearish sentiment.
Companies across sectors are almost exclusively reporting record profits and raising guidance.
That said, the same momentous earnings season has now produced two of the loudest consumer warnings of the cycle from two companies that aren’t prone to make noise.
Market snapshot
Elsewhere
🚀 Datadog rallied 30% after first-quarter revenue rose 32%. Management lifted 2026 revenue guidance to $4.3 billion, citing enterprise AI workloads driving faster customer monetization. (IBD)
✈ Jet fuel prices keep climbing. White House officials are reportedly concerned about the jump, and have been in touch with airline industry leaders on rising costs. (WSJ)
📈 Japan's Nikkei 225 closed above 62,000 for the first time ever. The index surged 5.6% to a record as Tokyo reopened from Golden Week and global investors piled into AI and semiconductor names. (Reuters)
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Rapid-fire
Shake Shack stock fell double-digits after reporting an operating loss of $2.6 million (CNBC)
Inflation expectations remain flat, according to the NY Fed’s latest survey (Reuters)
Planet Fitness stock dropped more than 30% after cutting its full-year outlook (Bloomberg)
South Korea’s stock market is at record highs but 2 single-name Korean stocks stand out as value plays (ProCap Insights)
US worker productivity growth slowed in Q1 to 0.8% (Reuters)
Boeing CEO will join President Trump to visit China next week (CNBC)
The stock market’s record rally rests on 2 key assumptions (Opening Bell Daily)
The crypto industry is dying and that is a good thing (Pomp Letter)
Interview
I sat down with Barron’s investment writer Josh Schafer to unpack the most critical charts driving markets and four high-conviction stock picks that he is watching right now.
Tune in on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or YouTube!
On this day
🗓 May 8, 1886: The first glass of Coca-Cola was served at Jacobs' Pharmacy in Atlanta for five cents. The drink became one of the most enduring consumer brands ever and a primary Berkshire Hathaway holding for four decades.
Last thing
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