Good morning, investors. Phil here, writing to you from the Future Proof in Miami.
It’s been great to meet so many of you in person over the last 24 hours. Be sure to come say hi if you are at the conference!
The world today is coming off the most chaotic day for oil prices in history.
This is your play-by-play.
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Oil up, oil down
Oil markets have swung from “apocalypse” to “all clear” in unprecedented fashion to start the week.
On Monday, investors witnessed the largest one-day price range in history with a staggering $38.29 swing for West Texas Intermediate crude.
Yet it was driven not by changes in physical supply, but by the real-time commentary of President Trump.
Crude prices opened nearly 30% higher on Monday, hovering near $120 a barrel for the first time since 2022.
With a sizable portion of transit through the Strait of Hormuz stalled, Wall Street analysts scrambled to publish $150 price targets.
While many commentators were assured the world would enter a protracted global supply shock, by the afternoon oil prices had reversed to erase all gains from earlier in the day.
WTI crude finished the latest trading session 4% lower than Friday’s closing price. 1
The timestamps and commentary paints a clear, unusual and memorable picture:
Sunday 6:00 PM: Oil futures surge 30% to $120 a barrel, the highest since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022
Source: Truth Social
Monday 1:00 PM: President Trump tells CBS, “ I think the war is very complete, pretty much…they have nothing left.”
Monday 3:30 PM: WTI crude prices fell to an intra-day low of $81.25 a barrel, marking a history $38.23 one-day swing.
Monday 8:30 PM: President Trump posts a warning to Iran not to stop oil flows in the Strait of Hormuz.
Source: Truth Social
All of the above caps off an absurd masterclass in social media diplomacy and narrative control.
The smart money isn’t expecting the volatility to abate anytime soon.
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Market snapshot
Elsewhere
🛢 Western allies are leaning on oil reserves. The US is holding discussions over releasing oil buffers to counteract the Gulf oil uncertainty and repercussions of the Iran war. The Strait of Hormuz closure has trapped over 1,000 ships. (WSJ)
🤝 President Trump is waiving certain oil sanctions. The US is moving to ensure adequate oil supply and lower prices in the near-term, and they will remain lifted until the Strait of Hormuz is fully re-opened. (Reuters)
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Rapid-fire
Iran officials warned oil tankers going through the Strait of Hormuz must be “very careful” (CNBC)
Palm, wheat and soybean oil prices climbed amid disruptions to oil supply (Bloomberg)
Anthropic’s battle with the Pentagon shows how top AI talent is seeking more than a big pay day (WSJ)
This Saudi ETF could rebound from 5-year lows amid an oil shock (Opening Bell Daily)
The Iran conflict has shifted odds for Fed rate cuts this year (Yahoo Finance)
On this day
🗓 March 10, 2000: The Nasdaq Composite closed at 5,048.62, its record high at the peak of the dot-com bubble. It then fell 78% from that level over the next two years.
Last thing
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