The fourth quarter of a midterm year has been the best three months of the presidential cycle for the S&P 500.
From 1950 through 2025, the index averaged a 6.6% price gain from the end of September to the end of December in midterm years. That's well ahead of every other year in the cycle.
The year before a presidential election comes in second with an average fourth-quarter gain of 3.9%. The year after an election averaged 3.7%, and election years trailed at 2.5%.
Each group covers 19 years of data, so no single year in the cycle gets an outsized sample.
2026 is a midterm year, and its fourth quarter started Sept. 30.
Seasonal patterns aren't guarantees, and averages can hide rough individual years. Midterm fourth quarters have been positive in 16 of the last 19 instances since 1950.
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