Happy Monday, investors. We have 20 trading days left before the calendar turns and bitcoin is leading asset prices lower to start December. It tumbled nearly 5% overnight despite no new headlines on the crypto.
At any rate, we’re going to dive into bullish historical data that support an optimistic outlook for 2026.
Bullish history
With the S&P 500 just below record highs and bubble fears still swirling, some investors may feel an instinct to exit the market.
But history suggests selling now would mean missing out on another positive year for stocks.
There are two data points that suggest we’re entering a “double-barrel” bullish set up for stocks in 2026, both of which are tied to the Federal Reserve.
Given that prediction markets see roughly an 87% chance of a rate cut in December, it’s helpful to remember how asset prices have performed during similar scenarios over the last four decades:
When the Fed cut rates with the S&P 500 within 2% of records, the index was higher 12 months later 100% of the time (20 out of 20 times)
When the Fed cut rates without a recession, the S&P 500 was higher 12 months later 100% of the time (21 out of 21 times)
In the two scenarios, the average returns are about 14% and 18%, respectively.
And, as Opening Bell Daily readers know, those two metrics don’t take into account the tailwinds from:
Accelerating AI trade
Robust earnings
Rising growth expectations
Fiscal stimulus from the Big Beautiful Bill
Indeed, Wall Street expects earnings for the Magnificent 7 to improve over the next four quarters and for the rest of the market to show similar momentum.
Meanwhile, the Atlanta Fed estimates that GDP growth will hover at 4% for the third quarter, higher than the 3.8% seen the quarter before.
So far, the S&P 500 is up 16.7% this year, and one more rally could push the index to its third consecutive 20% annual return.
Dating back to 1928, the benchmark index averages an 8.2% return following back-to-back 20% gains.
Not to fuel comparisons to the internet bubble, but that last time that happened was during the late 1990s, ahead of the dot-com crash.
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Market snapshot
Elsewhere
📉Bitcoin fell more than 4% overnight. The crypto erased more than $150 billion in market cap late Sunday, with some estimates reporting $400 million worth of levered trades being liquidated within hours. (Bloomberg)
🛍Consumers spent big money for Black Friday. AI-powered shopping tools helped drive a surge in online spending this weekend, with shoppers bypassing crowds from home with a record $11.8 billion in online spending. (Reuters)
📈 Silver keeps breaking records. The metal has climbed more than 70% this year but a supply crunch could push its price even further from here. October marked only the third time in the last 50 years where silver prices peaked. (CNBC)
Rapid-fire
The Nasdaq is coming off its first monthly loss since March but the Dow and S&P 500 are up (WSJ)
Global travel was disrupted by a recall in Airbus A320 jets (CNBC)
More than half of US homes lost value in the past year (Yahoo Finance)
Stocks could secure a rare milestone in the final month of the year (Opening Bell Daily)
President Trump declared Venezuelan airspace closed on Saturday (Bloomberg)
Roblox stock could be poised to rally as its new games draw billions of players (Barron’s)
A veteran portfolio manager explains why Alphabet is the all-in-one AI compounder that he’ll bet on for years to come (Best Ideas Club)
Interview
I joined Schwab Network at the New York Stock Exchange the morning after Thanksgiving to discuss the outlook for stocks in 2026 and the data I mentioned in today’s newsletter.
On this day
🗓December 1, 2008: The NBER officially declared that the US had actually been in a recession since December 2007, confirming the severity of the global financial crisis. The Dow dropped more than 7% after the news.
Last thing
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About me
📰 I’m Phil Rosen, co-founder and editor-in-chief of Opening Bell Daily. I’ve published books, lived on three continents, and won awards for my journalism, which has appeared in Business Insider, Fortune, Yahoo Finance, Bloomberg and Inc. Magazine.
I write our flagship newsletter and host our show, Full Signal, to prepare you for each trading day — unpacking markets, economic data and Wall Street with analysis you won’t find anywhere else.
Feedback? Reply to this email, ping me on X @philrosenn, or write me directly at [email protected].