Good morning, investors. Hope you had a fantastic Thanksgiving.

The US stock market will open for a shortened trading session today, ending three hours early at 1 PM in New York, though bond markets will remain open until 2 PM.

For Black Friday, we are offering 25% off our Best Ideas Club for a limited time. Members get a new high-conviction stock idea every week, sourced from world-class investors and portfolio managers.

There are 22 trading days left in the year and the setup for stocks looks promising.

The S&P 500 is up more than 16% in 2025, and it’s not impossible to think it could secure its third consecutive 20% annual return before the calendar changes. 

That’s only happened once before, during the 1990s bull market that preceded the bursting of the internet bubble.

The tailwinds seem to be in place.

Not only are the holidays historically favorable for investors, but Corporate America just concluded one of its best earnings seasons in years, the Fed is likely to cut interest rates in December and all signs point to a sustained AI trade in 2026. 

Meanwhile, markets could draw further stimulus from the One Big Beautiful Big that kicks in after January.

And even though a 16% return year-to-date is not an anomaly in recent decades, it’s worth remembering that the S&P 500 fell roughly 20% in April.

That means the benchmark index has actually climbed 36% from lows, which would put it in even more rare territory against history. 

During the last week of December, the market will enter its final bullish sprint of the year in what’s become known as the Santa Rally:

Of course, past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.

That said, there is wisdom in paying attention to seven decades of market seasonality.

Staying on top of markets that hit a new all-time high seemingly every week, a never-ending news cycle and volatility that’s frankly...volatile is a lot of work.

No matter what the market is doing, tastytrade has the tools you need to stay up to date and trade your way through it.

With tastytrade you get advanced charts, in-feed news and smart tools to help you adapt your strategy when the market shifts. You can manage your entire portfolio (stocks, options, futures, forex, and crypto) all on one platform with low commissions. 

See why serious traders choose tastytrade. 

🇷🇺 President Putin says Russia is ready for peace talks. He said the outlines of a draft peace plan agreed by the US and Ukraine could form the basis to the end of the war. A US representative is set to travel to Moscow next week. (CNBC)

🏠US mortgage applications rose to the highest since 2023. Home-purchase applications ticked up over the last week despite still-elevated borrowing costs, jumping 7.6% to 181.6 on the index. (Bloomberg)

🏦 The Fed is still divided on rate cuts. Fresh economic data likely won’t change policymakers’ minds at this point with a decision coming in less than two weeks. That said, markets see the most likely outcome being a 25 basis point cut. (Barron’s)

🤖The free AI-powered CFO for everyone. Call, chat or email Silvia, your personal CFO. She can provide real-time insights into your finances and net worth, at any hour of day. Built by investors, for investors. Sign up free.

🗓November 28, 1914: The New York Stock Exchange resumed trading in bonds after almost four months in the dark following the outbreak of the first World War. That marked the longest stoppage in history.

📩 Want to get in front of 192,000+ investors who get this newsletter and the 350,000 professionals who can access it on Bloomberg Terminals? Reply to this email and tell us why we should work together.

📰 I’m Phil Rosen, co-founder and editor-in-chief of Opening Bell Daily. I’ve published books, lived on three continents, and won awards for my journalism, which has appeared in Business Insider, Fortune, Yahoo Finance, Bloomberg and Inc. Magazine.

I write our flagship newsletter and host our show, Full Signal, to prepare you for each trading day — unpacking markets, economic data and Wall Street with analysis you won’t find anywhere else.

Feedback? Reply to this email, ping me on X @philrosenn, or write me directly at [email protected].