Good morning, investors. I’ll be reporting all day from Anthony Pompliano’s Independent Investor Summit in NYC. If you’re here at the conference, come say hi! Otherwise, you can keep up with live updates on X.

Now let’s get to the news.

US financial markets have a “Groundhog Day” quality to them right now and equities always seem to land near record highs.

Investors have played out the same story over and over again for the last several months, repeatedly shrugging off inflation concerns while staying fixated on the slightest fluctuations in the labor market.

That happened again Thursday:

And while the headline print marked the highest since December 2024, it also comes one day after the August PPI data came in far cooler than expected.

You can either say investors ignored the inflation data or that they simply chose to focus on the jobs numbers, which came in sharply above economist forecasts.

Weekly jobless claims rose by 27,000 to hit 263,000 for the first time in 4 years.

The release reaffirmed a slate of labor market numbers that all point to a slowdown:

“The path for the Fed to deliver what the market is expecting looks clear from our perspective,” said Elyse Ausenbaugh, head of investment strategy at JPMorgan Wealth Management.

“With inflation printing in-line with expectations and the labor market not giving us signs of improvement, a cut is in order.”

Stocks — perhaps, at this point, predictably — marched toward record highs after taking in the latest economic data.

The S&P 500 has now climbed a startling 36% since bottoming in April, marking the third-strongest five-month stretch in modern history.

Currently, markets assign a 96% probability for a quarter-point cut on September 17.

Rate cuts are widely expected to provide further juice to the bull market, though there remains a chance that the Fed’s announcement next week could turn out to be a “sell the news” event. 

Now, Jerome Powell will not want to needlessly surprise markets, so there’s little reason to think they won’t cut rates.

That said, Powell’s language will be key, according to Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers.

“A ‘hawkish cut’ is a distinct possibility, with the messaging being something along the lines of ‘here’s the cut you expected, but don’t expect too many more until we see that prices have stabilized,’” Sosnick said.

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📈Gold reached a new inflation-adjusted peak. The metal extended its historic rally to surpass its inflation-adjusted record set more than four decades ago. Spot prices rose 0.1% in the session to $3656 an ounce. (Barron’s)

✂ Sticky inflation shrinks odds for a jumbo rate cut. The in-line inflation print for August led to traders lowering their bets for a 50-basis-point cut next week. CME odds now show a 5% chance for a jumbo cut, down from 9% one day prior. (Yahoo Finance)

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📰 I’m Phil Rosen, co-founder and editor-in-chief of Opening Bell Daily. I’ve published books, lived on three continents, and won awards for my journalism, which has appeared in Business Insider, Fortune, Yahoo Finance, Bloomberg and Inc. Magazine.

I write our flagship newsletter to prepare you for each trading day — unpacking markets, economic data and Wall Street with analysis you won’t find anywhere else.

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