Good morning, investors. The bull market officially turns four years old today, and it’s gained some 120% since kicking off in October 2022.

As Ryan Detrick of Carson Group has pointed out, there have been seven other bull markets that hit their fourth birthday since 1950. Safe to say the AI boom is in good company.

The stock market has hit 28 new record highs this year but most investors do not realize just how few winners are doing the heavy lifting.

Nine of the 11 S&P 500 sectors are lagging the index so far this year. Only technology and energy are outperforming, but because the former now accounts for nearly 40% of the market, buying the S&P 500 today is simply a bullish call on tech.

That bias means technology has accounted for roughly 12 points of the S&P 500’s 13.6-point return this year, according to an analysis from Silvia Insights.

Meanwhile, because energy is only about 3% of the market, its outperformance — fueled by elevated oil prices and the power demand underpinning the AI boom — barely registers at an index level.

As it happens, excluding tech and energy, the median sector is barely up 1% year-to-date, and four of the nine are negative.

That said, buying into a market that lives or dies by technology isn’t such a dreadful thing in the age of AI.

It’s true that the entire index could falter if a handful of mega-caps lose ground, but it’s also the case that the technology sector is cheaper than it’s been in years.

The chart below from Tatiana Darie, a macro strategist at Bloomberg, illustrates the point.

She told me on Full Signal that the spread between the S&P 500 and information technology sector’s forward P/E ratios has fallen to levels last seen at the start of the pandemic. 

For context, that was around the time Nvidia had a market capitalization of $144 billion. 

It’s now closing in on $6 trillion. 

As much as the bull run has sprinted in 2026, particularly considering it’s a midterm election year, nearly all the momentum is tied to technology. 

That isn’t necessarily a bad thing, but any investor buying into the broad market today should recognize it’s mostly one trade.

Equity indices built on opinions? That’s the old way.

The new way is Bloomberg Equity Indices.

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📈 Economists expect inflation to ticker higher again. A new survey found economists expect CPI to rise 0.6% after a 0.4% jump a month earlier. This would mark the largest advance in five months. (Bloomberg)

🐂 Midterm election years are historically bullish. The S&P 500 typically sees its best fourth quarter of the presidential cycle during midterm years, and the annual return in a post-midterm year is also the strongest in the four-year cycle. (Opening Bell Daily)

📺 Warren Buffett loves YouTube rabbit holes. He finds commercials from the 1950s, Paul Anka videos, and Berkshire’s own content, according to a recent report. (WSJ)

Anthony Pompliano is a veteran investor and entrepreneur, and the CEO of Silvia Inc. We sat down to discuss the shortcomings of government economic data, the macro bear case, how AI changes the market outlook, and more.

Tune in on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or YouTube.

🗓 October 12, 2010: The Federal Reserve released FOMC minutes that signaled policymakers were preparing to resume large-scale Treasury purchases, an early nod to the formal QE2 announcement three weeks later.

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