Good morning, investors. SpaceX is set to IPO at the end of the week, and last night news broke that OpenAI also confidentially filed for its IPO likely later this year.

I’ll be discussing all this on Yahoo Finance live at 9 AM in New York — hope to see you there!

Now let’s unpack the Lag 7.

All about the rest

The most popular stocks in the market have lagged everything else to start the year and it isn’t close.

The S&P 493 has gained more than 10% in 2026, almost exactly double the returns of the Magnificent 7.

The most popular tech segment of the last three years also lags the S&P 500, which means the mega-caps are now more of a drag on the index rather than a catalyst.

Chart courtesy of Exhibit A

The data does not tell a top-heavy story.

In fact, this is what broadening looks like.

Indeed, the equal-weight S&P 500 has kept up with the market cap-weighted version this year, which only happens when returns are shared across the market rather than concentrated in a handful of names.

Intriguing, too, is that the rotation is also wider than most investors realize.

Energy leads every sector this year with roughly a 30% return, followed closely by technology at 28%.

Financials, communication services and consumer discretionary are lagging, each sitting in the red.

Technology ranking second even as the Magnificent 7 underperforms underscores how the drag stems from just a few names, rather than the entire industry.

Microsoft has fallen 13%, Meta 10%, and Tesla 6.7%, enough to hold back the group even as Alphabet, Nvidia and Apple each post double-digit returns.

Outsized strength from the 493 means the index can finally rise without its heaviest weightings, which offers a healthier setup than the narrow trading that defined 2023 and 2024.

Still, a market that climbs without its largest stocks can also fall when breadth reverses, which is what happened with last week's tech sell off.

At any rate, the takeaway here is both simple and bullish.

The most crowded trade on Wall Street has spent six months losing to the stocks everyone ignored.

Today’s letter is brought to you by Quantify Funds!

Quantify Funds is building actively managed funds that seek to pay weekly dividends from the performance of bitcoin, gold, and US stocks. 

$1 of ISBG gives $2 of total exposure to bitcoin & gold. 

Governments print. We stack bitcoin & gold.

Market snapshot

Elsewhere

🤖 Apple announced a new AI-powered Siri. The tool can now act on behalf of users, like finding specific photos and adding them to an album. Apple stock dipped on the news. (Yahoo Finance)

📈 Corning stock jumped 6% after inking a deal with Amazon. In a multi-billion dollar deal, the companies will collaborate to boost fiber optics manufacturing in the US and build out products for data centers. (Reuters)

🏦 JPMorgan ended a decade-long bearish stance on Tesla with a $475 price target. New analyst Rajat Gupta upgraded the stock to Neutral and called Tesla "at the forefront of physical AI." (Bloomberg)

Rapid-fire

  • Households are reporting a deteriorating financial situation at the highest level since 2023 (Yahoo Finance)

  • One of Blue Owl’s private credit funds that capped redemptions raised $500 million in the bond market (Bloomberg)

  • Gold falls to a two-month low as rate hike bets ramp up (CNBC)

  • 4 macro trades to execute on as the Iran war drags on (Full Signal)

  • A judge struck down the White House’s $100,000 H-1B Visa fee (WSJ)

  • Marvell joined the S&P 500 but that won’t determine where the stock goes next (ProCap Insights)

  • The stock market still doesn’t care about the Iran conflict after 100 days (Opening Bell Daily)

On this day

🗓 June 9, 2008: Lehman Brothers announced an expected $2.8 billion second-quarter loss, its first quarterly loss since going public in 1994.

Last thing

📩 Want to get in front of 207,000+ investors who get this newsletter and the 350,000 professionals who can access it on Bloomberg Terminals? Reply to this email and tell us why we should work together.

Partner disclosures:

ISBG uses Bitcoin, Gold, and Stock options and do not invest directly in bitcoin, gold, or stocks. The use of derivative instruments involves risks different from, or possibly greater than, the risks associated with investing directly in securities and other traditional investments. These risks include (i) the risk that the counterparty to a derivative transaction may not fulfill its contractual obligations; (ii) risk of mispricing or improper valuation; and (iii) the risk that changes in the value of the derivative may not correlate perfectly with the underlying asset, rate or index. Derivative prices are highly volatile and may fluctuate substantially during a short period of time. The use of leverage by the Fund, such as borrowing money to purchase securities or the use of options, will cause the Fund to incur additional expenses and magnify the Fund’s gains or losses.

The Fund is not suitable for all investors. The Fund is designed to be utilized only by knowledgeable investors who understand the potential consequences of seeking daily leveraged (2X) investment results, understand the risks associated with the use of leverage, and are willing to monitor their portfolios frequently. The Fund is not intended to be used by, and is not appropriate for, investors who do not intend to actively monitor and manage their portfolios. For periods longer than a single day, the Fund will lose money if the Target Portfolio’s performance is flat, and it is possible that the Fund will lose money even if the Target Portfolio’s market value increases over a period longer than a single day. An investor could lose the full principal value of his/her investment within a single day.

There is no guarantee the Quantify Funds ETFs will make weekly distributions and the amounts may fluctuate from week to week. Distributions may be comprised of option premiums, dividends, capital gains, and interest payments. To view both current and historical monthly estimates of ETF distribution composition, investors may view the 19a-1 notices available on each corresponding Fund's webpage. Distributions classified as return of capital will reduce an investor’s cost basis in Fund shares owned, which may result in higher taxes paid in the future when the Fund shares are sold, even if the shares are sold at a loss compared to the original investment. 

Investing involves risk. Principal loss is possible. Distributed by Foreside Fund Services, LLC.

Before investing you should carefully consider the Fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses.

This and other information is in the fund page within the website (www.quantifyfunds.com). Please read the prospectus carefully before investing. 

Reply

Avatar

or to participate

Keep Reading