Good morning, investors. We have, once again, an update to the US-Iran ceasefire timeline.

President Trump announced Tuesday that it would continue effectively indefinitely, rather than ending today as initially proposed.

That moved markets plenty, but another corner of the financial world is grappling with its own issues.

The biggest pharma trade of the decade is breaking in real time.

Amazon's new direct-to-patient GLP-1 pricing has done what clinical setbacks and insurance fights couldn't in dragging Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly stocks lower.

While Amazon is up 10% this year, the two pharma giants are down 22% and 16%, respectively.

Amazon set cash-pay prices at $25 a month for insured patients, $149 for oral pills, and $299 for injectables like Wegovy and Zepbound.

Same-day delivery already reaches nearly 3,000 cities and expands to 4,500 by year-end.

That pricing exposes two variables in the GLP-1 wars.

First, it commoditizes distribution.

Even though Novo and Lilly still make the drug and collect on it, the markup dollars that sat between the patient and manufacturers have suddenly shrunk.

Second, Amazon's move reveals how much of the Ozempic-era stock boom was built on scarcity and gate-keeping.

Novo's earnings miss in February, which triggered a 13.8% one-day drop, was the first signal that momentum had reversed.

Other GLP-1-exposed names like HIMS have seen similar tumbles.

Lilly has held up slightly better thanks to its diabetes and oncology pipelines. But it's still down 20% from its high just a few months ago.

Between them, Novo and Lilly have shed more than $200 billion in market value since the start of the year.

That's about the size of two Starbucks or one Wells Fargo.

Amazon's pricing won’t be the only headwind for Big Pharma.

Odds are the GLP-1 sell-off has further to run.

Quantify Funds is building actively managed funds that seek to pay weekly dividends from the performance of bitcoin, gold, and US stocks. 

$1 of ISBG gives $2 of total exposure to bitcoin & gold. 

Governments print. We stack bitcoin & gold.

🏦 Kevin Warsh said there’s no deal with President Trump to lower rates. “The president never asked me to predetermine, commit, fix, decide on any interest rate decision, in any of our discussions, nor would I ever agree to do so,” he said during his confirmation hearing Tuesday. (Yahoo Finance)

💴 The White House is weighing a currency swap line with the UAE. The Iran conflict has hit the United Arab Emirates’ economy, and officials are weighing the financial lifeline for the oil-rich region. (CNBC)

🏙 We’re bringing investors together in in New York. Our friends at Finimize are hosting a stellar line up with Anthropic, Robinhood, NYSE, SoFi, VanEck, as well as our very own Anthony Pompliano. Grab a ticket and join us at 6pm on May 19th.

Lou Basenese is a veteran market strategist and the founder of The Big Skinny. We sat down to discuss three under-the-radar AI stock picks, how AI is disrupting the labor market, and why he’s bullish on small-cap biotech.

Tune in on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or YouTube.

🗓 April 22, 1864: Congress passed the Coinage Act, creating the two-cent coin as the first US currency to bear the motto "In God We Trust." It also reduced the copper content of the one-cent coin.

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Partner disclosures:

ISBG uses Bitcoin, Gold, and Stock options and do not invest directly in bitcoin, gold, or stocks. The use of derivative instruments involves risks different from, or possibly greater than, the risks associated with investing directly in securities and other traditional investments. These risks include (i) the risk that the counterparty to a derivative transaction may not fulfill its contractual obligations; (ii) risk of mispricing or improper valuation; and (iii) the risk that changes in the value of the derivative may not correlate perfectly with the underlying asset, rate or index. Derivative prices are highly volatile and may fluctuate substantially during a short period of time. The use of leverage by the Fund, such as borrowing money to purchase securities or the use of options, will cause the Fund to incur additional expenses and magnify the Fund’s gains or losses.

The Fund is not suitable for all investors. The Fund is designed to be utilized only by knowledgeable investors who understand the potential consequences of seeking daily leveraged (2X) investment results, understand the risks associated with the use of leverage, and are willing to monitor their portfolios frequently. The Fund is not intended to be used by, and is not appropriate for, investors who do not intend to actively monitor and manage their portfolios. For periods longer than a single day, the Fund will lose money if the Target Portfolio’s performance is flat, and it is possible that the Fund will lose money even if the Target Portfolio’s market value increases over a period longer than a single day. An investor could lose the full principal value of his/her investment within a single day.

There is no guarantee the Quantify Funds ETFs will make weekly distributions and the amounts may fluctuate from week to week. Distributions may be comprised of option premiums, dividends, capital gains, and interest payments. To view both current and historical monthly estimates of ETF distribution composition, investors may view the 19a-1 notices available on each corresponding Fund's webpage. Distributions classified as return of capital will reduce an investor’s cost basis in Fund shares owned, which may result in higher taxes paid in the future when the Fund shares are sold, even if the shares are sold at a loss compared to the original investment. 

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