Anthony Pompliano, chairman and CEO of ProCap Financial and co-founder of Opening Bell Daily, told Phil Rosen on Full Signal that investors should trust what the market is doing over bearish macro forecasts. He says bitcoin, gold and land are the durable core of a portfolio, paired with early-stage startup bets.
I sat down with Pompliano on Full Signal to ask whether he buys the bearish takes on oil prices, interest rates and geopolitics.
Why Pompliano says the market is the referee
Pompliano argued that higher oil prices and higher interest rates were supposed to push stocks lower, and they did not. In his words, "the market is the referee," and he thinks investors who ignore its verdict are making a mistake.
He says the right response is humility. If prices keep climbing against the textbook, he said, something about the old framework has probably changed.
Opening Bell Daily has tracked the same theme, including how investors have gotten used to climbing the wall of worry with bond yields and oil.
Why he distrusts the official economic data
Pompliano said he has argued for years that government economic data is unreliable, citing large jobs report revisions as an example. He believes the Fed sets interest rates off inflation readings it cannot measure well. He also pushes the idea of a "personal inflation rate," since a Manhattan resident and an Iowa farmer face very different price baskets.
These are Pompliano's views, not a consensus position.
AI is only part of the macro picture
Pompliano said he is as bullish on AI as anybody, but he thinks it has become a safe way to talk about a taboo idea, which is that the economic data was already flawed. He also questioned how much AI explains the economy today. He said he believes only about 2% of Americans pay for AI, versus roughly 5% who spend money on sports gambling.
Why bitcoin, gold and land anchor his portfolio
Pompliano calls bitcoin, gold and productive land the "boring assets" and the forever holdings. He said most stock market gains come from money printing, and he said bitcoin, gold and land together are up about 170% over five years versus roughly 70% for the S&P 500.
He described gold as a hedge on government printing and said he does not own a lot of it. He likes land and gold partly because they smooth out bitcoin's swings, which he said can include drawdowns of 40% to 50%.
The barbell of resilient assets and startup bets
Pompliano said he tries to "barbell" his portfolio. One end holds assets he believes are resilient to change, and the other holds early-stage companies trying to ride technological disruption.
He said most of his own portfolio is bitcoin or similar assets plus private startup investments. In his view, "the best investors realize the game everyone else is playing is a bad game."
How AI agents could feed bitcoin demand
On the link between AI and bitcoin, Pompliano described a short-term effect and a long-term one. In the short term, he said capital rotated out of crypto and into AI stocks, and he said bitcoin recently jumped from $65,000 to $85,000 as the AI trade cooled.
Over the long term, he argued that AI agents will need digital money that keeps working after banks and markets close. He added that bitcoin is "one of the only assets in the world where when demand increases, supply stays constant."
Lessons from his new book
Pompliano also discussed his new book, How to Live an Extraordinary Life Volume Two. He said assuming you will have more time later is arrogant, and that expertise helps with solved problems but can be a liability when you are attempting something that has never been done.
Tune in to the full conversation with Anthony Pompliano on YouTube, Spotify and Apple Podcasts.
For more on bitcoin and the market backdrop, read Bitcoin is taking off and the rest of the market knows it, and subscribe to the free Opening Bell Daily newsletter for a daily briefing on stocks, macro and Wall Street.
This post is informational only and is not investment advice. The views expressed are Pompliano's, and the statistics cited come from the episode and were not independently verified.
Pompliano is chairman and CEO of ProCap Financial, which holds bitcoin, and co-founded Opening Bell Daily with Phil Rosen, who is Chief Market Strategist at ProCap Financial. Pompliano also said most of his personal portfolio is in bitcoin and similar assets.