BTC on the move
Bitcoin is up almost 30% in a month and almost all of that can be tied back to the US Treasury.
Since the start of August, its price has climbed from about $63,000 to over $81,000. But its best three days came on August 19, 20 and 21, immediately after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent doubled the government’s bond market buybacks to at least $4 billion per operation.
Bitcoin gained more than 5.4% a day for three days to secure a 21% gain in 72 hours.
Bitcoin saw its latest 5% day again on Thursday, its fourth in the last month.
What’s interesting, too, is that bitcoin remained flat on August 18 when the SEC proposed a pro-crypto framework that traders ordinarily would have celebrated.
The market ignored industry-specific policy then went gangbusters on Treasury plumbing.
Notably, bitcoin dropped 3% for its worst day of the month on August 28, when Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh reiterated his focus on inflation at Jackson Hole.
So the Treasury catalyzed bitcoin’s best three days while the Fed sparked its worst.
This suggests investors see fiscal policy outmuscling monetary policy at least in the near term, and that Bessent will manage to keep long-dated yields in check no matter what Warsh does to the short end.
Bitcoin will have a chance to respond to both institutions later this month.
The expanded bond buybacks kick off September 9 and the Fed is set to announce its decision on interest rates on September 16.
Guessing the price of bitcoin on a certain date is a fool’s game.
But if the last month is any indication, the 9th will matter more than the 16th for the bulls.
Elsewhere
📊 August jobs are expected to rise by 65,000. Should that FactSet median estimate hold, it would be well above the trailing 12-month average of 26,300 nonfarm payrolls a month. (FactSet)
🤖 Nvidia confirmed a $13 billion deal for open-weight AI platform Hugging Face. It is the company’s second-largest acquisition ever, paying $11.9 billion for the platform plus a $1 billion equity retention pool for new staff joining Nvidia. (Yahoo Finance)
📊 The US trade deficit in July jumped to its highest level since before Liberation Day. The widening gap reflected a rebound in imports as businesses adjusted to the shifting tariff schedule. (Yahoo Finance)
🚀 Broadcom's AI chip revenue tripled to $16.7 billion last quarter. While the stock had a muted reaction, quarterly adjusted EPS of $3.32 beat estimates but the $34.8 billion Q4 revenue guide came in below the $35.03 billion Wall Street wanted. (Investing.com)
🎙We have an incredible line up of guests joining my podcast, Full Signal, next week. If you have not yet, be sure to subscribe on YouTube, Spotify or Apple Podcasts to catch every episode.
Rapid-fire
Vice President Vance said he could see interest rates moving lower from here (CNBC)
Fed's Waller signaled he is open to leaving rates unchanged this month (Yahoo Finance)
This tiny industrial stock could triple over the next year thanks to its SpaceX contract (Best Ideas Club)
Options volume is surging in Robinhood and Tesla (CNBC)
Campbell stock plunged after the food maker slashed its dividend on weaker sales (Yahoo Finance)
The odds for a Fed hike in September are now a coin flip (Barron’s)
Snowflake stock rallied after crushing earnings estimates (Yahoo Finance)
On this day
🗓 September 4, 1998: Larry Page and Sergey Brin filed papers of incorporation in California for a new startup called Google.
Last thing
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