Good morning, investors. The stock market is coming off a losing session but a winning week, and the Federal Reserve Chairman had a lot to do with it.

Let’s dive in.

Kevin Warsh used Jackson Hole to reassure markets that inflation is his top priority.

The new Fed Chair told the symposium Friday that responsibility for "65 months of sustained, elevated inflation sits squarely with the central bank,” but then he declined to explain what he plans to do about it.

The latest numbers back up his ostensibly hawkish view:

Warsh highlighted that 54% of individual goods and services categories in the PCE basket logged annual price gains above 3%, higher than the pre-pandemic norm of about 32% of items.

Yet instead of sharing a game plan for what comes next, he offered a vanilla generalization of the central bank’s task at hand.

“While this summer’s PCE and CPI readings were better than expected, they do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved,” Warsh said.

"We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed,” he added.

Beyond that, he shared little that could be taken as an outlook, sticking to his anti-forward guidance stance he has popularized over the last year.

But as hawkish as his focus on inflation might sound — and markets did raise their odds of a rate hike before year-end after his speech — Warsh’s stance is more nuanced, tying in lending standards and credit spreads.

“On balance, I would be hard pressed to describe financial conditions as restrictive,” Warsh said.

That helps explain why Warsh has announced two no-moves in a row from the FOMC, even though three Fed officials dissented at the July meeting. 

Warsh maintains that he is “committed to a discipline, not to a decision” for where rates go next. 

That wordplay is a natural fit for a closely-watched policy speech, but come September he will have to prove his rhetoric with a vote.

📊 Affirm stock rallied on a record earnings print. The buy-now-pay-later firm cleared $1.17 billion in revenue, though its CEO said inflation is actually pulling more shoppers onto the platform even as it strains household budgets. (CNBC)

🛢 Dollar Tree said rising fuel costs pose a headwind through year-end. Elevated gasoline prices are pushing freight surcharges high enough to compress margins, even as the retailer raised full-year EPS guidance to $7.70 to $8.05. (Benzinga)

🪙 Michael Saylor said "We're Back" for the bitcoin market. Strategy has not bought bitcoin in 10 weeks but raised $3.28 billion in fresh capital this month. Prediction markets now price a 96% chance the company announces a purchase this week. (Yahoo Finance)

🗓 August 31, 1998: The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 6.37% in one of its worst single-day drops of the decade, fueled by the Russian debt default and ruble devaluation.

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