Good morning, investors. Before we get to markets, I am excited to share that Anthony Pompliano — my co-founder on Opening Bell Media — just released his new book, How to Live an Extraordinary Life, Volume 2.

If you find value in the work we are doing on a daily basis, consider buying his book. I am biased, but it is an excellent read.

You can order your copy here.

Now let’s dive in.

Corporate America is turning more bullish on itself and Wall Street analysts are following that lead.

For the third quarter, 72 S&P 500 companies issued positive earnings guidance, according to FactSet, the most on record.

At the same time, just 44 names guided lower, the fewest since the third quarter of 2021 and roughly 30% below the five-year average. 

As one might guess in an AI boom, tech tells the story. More than six of 10 positive guiders came from the information technology sector, tying last quarter’s record for the group. 

To no surprise, software and semiconductors were the biggest contributors.

Meanwhile, analysts raised their third-quarter earnings estimates for tech by 3.5% over the quarter, the second largest jump of any sector.

The group is now expected to grow earnings 65%, also the second-fastest pace among all sectors, per FactSet. 

Across the entire S&P 500, the bottom-up price target has climbed 3.6% since June 30 to 9,275, which represents about 18.5% upside from Tuesday’s closing levels. 

What’s more, analysts see all 11 of the sectors rising more than 10% over the next 12 months.

To be sure, as much of a tailwind that a rising bar provides for asset prices, it also raises the stakes for companies to meet those numbers. Guidance feeds consensus expectations, and eventually lofty expectations can influence guidance.

Notably, the previous guidance record in 2021 happened during the reopening rebound during the COVID pandemic, a black swan happening that skews the numbers.

Still, it’s true that management teams have the clearest view of their own order books and balance sheets.

Even if they are overly optimistic on their businesses, it’s just as telling that they are sounding the alarm less and less.

With earnings around the corner, results will show whether that optimism was earned or priced in.

Equity indices built on opinions? That’s the old way.

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⚡️ Google signed a 20-year nuclear power deal with Constellation Energy. Constellation stock surged on the announcement, and hyperscalers continue to lock in long-duration baseload contracts to power data centers at scale. (Yahoo Finance)

📈 Nvidia, Apple and Microsoft now account for a record share of the S&P 500. The three names have carried most of the index's 2026 gains while the rest of the market trades mostly sideways, with concentration levels now above the dot-com peak. (Yahoo Finance)

I took the stage at Robinhood’s HOOD Summit in Houston with the company’s chief investment strategist Steph Guild to walk through exactly what stocks she is holding in Robinhood’s managed portfolios.

Tune in on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or YouTube.

🗓 October 7, 2008: The Federal Reserve launched the Commercial Paper Funding Facility to buy short-term corporate debt directly from issuers as credit markets seized up. This marked the Fed's most aggressive expansion of its lending powers since the Great Depression.

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