Through Oct. 7, 2026, the cap-weighted S&P 500 was up 14.0% for the year versus 9.9% for the equal-weight version, after equal weight led for most of 2026.
For most of 2026, the average stock was winning. Not anymore.
This chart compares year-to-date price returns for the S&P 500 and its equal-weight counterpart. Equal weight led through much of the year, including during the spring selloff, when the cap-weighted index fell more than 7% year to date.
The race flipped in mid-September, when equal weight last held the lead on Sept. 16. Through Oct. 7, the S&P 500 was up 14.0% while equal weight was up 9.9%.
Mega-caps drove the reversal. From Sept. 16 through Oct. 7, Nvidia rose 11%, Microsoft 8% and Meta 7%, while the equal-weight fund slipped 0.8%.
As of Oct. 7, the equal-weight index sat about 5.5% below its 52-week closing high, while the S&P 500 was within 1% of its own.
When equal weight lags, leadership is narrowing and the index depends on a few giants. Investors holding an S&P 500 fund are increasingly concentrated in tech, whether they meant to be or not. The question now is whether the average stock mean-reverts or keeps falling behind.
This chart first ran in Opening Bell Daily on Oct. 8.
Get charts like this every morning. Join 200K+ investors on our free morning briefing. Want our stock picks? Upgrade to Best Ideas Club.