Good morning, investors. It’s been great meeting many of you at the Silvia Investor Summit in New York City this week, and I’m eager to see you all again today as I take the stage with Anthony Pompliano just before noon.

Tune in as we discuss the state of markets and macro as the fourth quarter begins.

The average stock in the market is suddenly getting lapped by the index. 

The equal-weight S&P 500 has fallen to its lowest level relative to its market-cap weighted counterpart since at least 2003. 

The chart below — which tracks the price ratio of Invesco’s equal-weight ETF (RSP) to the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) — has fallen 30% since its peak in 2015.

A falling line means the average stock is lagging an index dominated by mega-cap names, a sign of narrowing leadership.

When the line is moving higher, it points to broadening momentum, though it could also mean the biggest stocks are falling faster than the rest of the index.

From 2003 to 2014, the line climbed about 25%, then drifted lower for years.

Since the start of the AI boom at the end of 2022, it has lost a quarter of its value.

In 2023 and 2024, equal weight lagged by more than 12 points each year, its two worst calendar years since RSP launched. It led the S&P 500 for most of 2026, but it’s since flipped and now trails by more than 3 points as mega-caps like Nvidia, Microsoft and Meta have rallied.

Given that the technology sector accounts for nearly 40% of the S&P 500, it only takes a handful of winners to generate outperformance against the average stock in the index.

Historical analogs should not be taken as forecasts, yet it’s still true that the dot-com bubble traded in a similar pattern to today.

In the six months to February 2000, equal-weight trailed the index by more than 10 points.

The equal-weight index hovers 6% below its 52-week high while the S&P 500 remains within 1% of its own. 

Now we wait to see whether the line on the chart above keeps falling, and whether investors want to bet on mean reversion or not.

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YSAU, the Y’all Street Physical Gold ETF, and YSAG, the Y’all Street Physical Silver ETF, are designed to give investors exposure to physical gold and silver with the metal stored entirely in the US at Texas Precious Metals Depository.

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Know what you own and where it is.

🏦 Fed officials signaled another rate hike is coming. The September minutes out Wednesday showed broad support for continued tightening. (CNBC)

🤖 Marvell Technology jumped 6% after Wall Street raised price targets following an AI-focused analyst day. TD Cowen upgraded the stock to Buy with a $350 target, up from $245, while Jefferies went to $450 and Stifel to $370. (Investing.com)

🎯 Congress flagged Webull as a national security risk tied to its Chinese ownership. Lawmakers warned that the retail brokerage's structure could give Beijing potential access to American investor data and order flow. (CNBC)

📈 Micron stock ticked higher despite a union strike. Workers are pushing to replace Micron’s existing incentive scheme with a plan allocating 15% of operating profit to bonuses. (Barron’s)

Josh Schafer is an investment writer at Barron’s. We sat down to discuss the five stocks he’s watching now for 2027, where we are in the AI market cycle, the rise of consumer AI agents, and more.

Tune in on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or YouTube — and please leave a review on the podcast if you find our work valuable!

🗓 October 8, 2008: The Federal Reserve held an emergency inter-meeting FOMC and cut the federal funds rate 50 basis points to 1.5%. The move was coordinated with central banks in Europe and Japan during the worst week of the global financial crisis.

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