Good morning, investors. Small-cap stocks once again cleared another milestone to start the week, and AI memory names also had a field day.

But that momentum stopped before it could pull the biggest name in Big Tech higher.

Google investors did not appreciate that two of the world’s most important AI researchers just left the company.

Shares of Alphabet finished more than 5% lower Monday. Yet at current levels, the stock is 22% cheaper than Apple on a forward earnings basis, even as Google’s profits are accelerating nearly four times faster.

Compared to other Big Tech peers, Apple is a fitting comparison given that the market has spent years treating the latter as the safe haven trade among the Magnificent 7.

Now, that premium has inverted.

Noam Shazeer left for OpenAI on June 18, less than two years after Google paid $2.7 billion to bring him back via CharacterAI.

John Jumper followed days later for Anthropic, taking his 2024 Nobel in chemistry with him.

The price action also reflected a $180 billion to $190 billion 2026 capex guide that has unsettled investors.

First quarter free cash flow had already fallen 47% to $10.1 billion.

That said, the company overall continues to plug along like the dominant incumbent it is.

Google Cloud’s backlog rose to $462 billion last quarter, nearly doubling in three months.

Search and YouTube, meanwhile, continue to be world-class businesses.

Plus, not for nothing, Google has been losing top technical talent for three years and the stock has nonetheless remained one of the best investments of the AI era.

Geoff Hinton left in 2023 and Mustafa Suleyman went to Microsoft in 2024, but that didn’t stop Google from turning Gemini into a top-three model against OpenAI and Anthropic.

To be sure, ambitious capex has not made Alphabet a more popular stock pick.

It’s not unreasonable to believe that overspending, eventually, could be the company’s undoing.

What stands out here is that, as of today, the market wants to pay more for Apple — a company with no clear AI strategy — than Google without its leading AI scientists.

Investors are signaling that Apple’s brand is worth more than Google’s growth trajectory.

The math will determine who’s right over the next 12 months.

Quantify Funds is building actively managed funds that seek to pay weekly dividends from the performance of bitcoin, gold, and US stocks. 

$1 of ISBG gives $2 of total exposure to bitcoin & gold. 

Governments print. We stack bitcoin & gold.

🏦 Alan Greenspan died at age 100. The legendary Fed chairman steered the central bank through the 1987 crash and the dot-com bubble, and served as the most powerful US economic voice for more than 18 years before stepping down in 2006. (CNBC)

🎯 JD Vance said Iran agreed to allow nuclear inspectors back into the country. The concession was framed as a confidence-building step toward broader peace that helped drag Brent crude below $78 per barrel. (WSJ)

🛢 Brent crude tumbled 3.8% to $77.51 on US-Iran peace deal progress. Officials reported "great progress" after weekend talks and Qatar and Pakistan said both sides agreed on a 60-day roadmap to lift the Strait of Hormuz blockade. (Yahoo Finance)

🗓 June 23, 2016: UK voters chose to leave the European Union in the Brexit referendum. The pound suffered its largest one-day drop in history the next session.

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ISBG uses Bitcoin, Gold, and Stock options and do not invest directly in bitcoin, gold, or stocks. The use of derivative instruments involves risks different from, or possibly greater than, the risks associated with investing directly in securities and other traditional investments. These risks include (i) the risk that the counterparty to a derivative transaction may not fulfill its contractual obligations; (ii) risk of mispricing or improper valuation; and (iii) the risk that changes in the value of the derivative may not correlate perfectly with the underlying asset, rate or index. Derivative prices are highly volatile and may fluctuate substantially during a short period of time. The use of leverage by the Fund, such as borrowing money to purchase securities or the use of options, will cause the Fund to incur additional expenses and magnify the Fund’s gains or losses.

The Fund is not suitable for all investors. The Fund is designed to be utilized only by knowledgeable investors who understand the potential consequences of seeking daily leveraged (2X) investment results, understand the risks associated with the use of leverage, and are willing to monitor their portfolios frequently. The Fund is not intended to be used by, and is not appropriate for, investors who do not intend to actively monitor and manage their portfolios. For periods longer than a single day, the Fund will lose money if the Target Portfolio’s performance is flat, and it is possible that the Fund will lose money even if the Target Portfolio’s market value increases over a period longer than a single day. An investor could lose the full principal value of his/her investment within a single day.

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