Jordi Visser, head of AI Macro Nexus Research at 22V Research and a former president and CIO of Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers, told Phil Rosen on Full Signal that AI is now the only macro story that matters.
He explained why rising yields trace back to the AI build-out, what Microsoft's buyout offer means for workers, and why he's bullish on Eli Lilly and Micron.
Why AI is driving rates
"The only thing that matters in the economy is what's happening in AI," Visser said. He argued that this year's rise in Treasury yields reflects higher nominal GDP plus the debt and capital needs of the data center build-out.
Bank credit desks are worried about concentration, not collapse, he said, since the biggest borrowers are also the biggest equity holdings. "That doesn't mean the AI bubble is blowing up," he said.
He expects next year to look different. He cited Goldman Sachs's view that investment-grade bond issuance growth is set to peak, and expects more financing to move to private credit and special purpose vehicles.
Microsoft's buyouts and the labor question
Rosen asked about Microsoft offering buyouts to 60,000 employees. Visser said that's 27% of the company's workforce, and estimated the savings at about $24 billion if all 60,000 left.
He sees pressure building on governments to support workers because companies are thriving. Rather than universal basic income, he expects "a redistribution of profits from capital to labor," possibly through higher corporate tax rates on the largest companies.
Where AI productivity is showing up
Visser rejected the idea that AI hasn't boosted productivity. "It just has shown up in corporate profit margins at this point," he said, pointing to profits that keep growing while companies barely hire.
He's still cautious on the hyperscalers, even though he called their balance sheets pristine. "I'm just not positive on public companies that are based on code," he said.
He also flagged a warning sign. He expects S&P 500 earnings to rise about 30% this year, while the index was up only about 11% when they spoke.
The bull case for Eli Lilly and Micron
"The stock is a beast," Visser said of Eli Lilly, noting it has compounded more than 30% a year for 10 years. He said publicly that "this will be the biggest stock in the S&P 500 by 2030."
He called obesity and diabetes drugs a non-cyclical, regulated business that AI can't easily disrupt, with only about 10% of the 100 million obese Americans on treatment.
On Micron, Visser said he sold out around May and June and has been buying back in. He sees downside of maybe 10% to 20%, while "the upside is 60 to 80%."
How to see around corners
His advice for investors is to stop extrapolating today and find the decade-long story. He echoed Adam Parker's view that the AI trade is still in its early innings.
"Longevity is a major, major theme," he said, adding that he'd rather be long travel and recreation than McDonald's.
Tune in to the full conversation with Jordi Visser on YouTube, Spotify and Apple Podcasts.
For more on AI debt, read Veteran Investor Eddie Ghabour Says the Fed Made a Mistake, Warns on AI Debt and Lays Out His 2027 Playbook, and subscribe to the free Opening Bell Daily newsletter for a daily briefing on stocks, macro and Wall Street.
This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Views and stock opinions are those of Jordi Visser and market figures are as stated by the guest at the time of recording.
