Good morning, investors. The Dow just had its worst day since April 2025 — back when Liberation Day was markets’ biggest anxiety — and the latest comms from the Fed did not help the cause.

Let’s dive in.

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The most important thing the Federal Reserve just did was refuse to say what comes next.

New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is dismantling forward guidance in an effort to move the work of pricing the economic data out of the central banks and into the market.

Policymakers held the benchmark rate in the 3.5-3.75%, as expected, yet the decision itself was the least interesting news of the afternoon.

Three officials — Hammack, Kashkari and Logan — dissented in favor of a rate hike for a final 9-3 vote.

Warsh called the divided vote a good family fight, which in itself runs counter to the consensus that Jerome Powell used to work so hard to manufacture.

Warsh declined to submit his own economic projection at the Fed’s June meeting, and he has repeatedly questioned whether the traditional dot plot still has a place in modern monetary policy.

"Market participants are learning to play the ball, not the referee, and market prices will continue to respond in the direction and magnitude they see fit," Warsh said.

“This is, in my view, a change for the better, and we're just getting started.”

While the two-year yield fell, that of the 10-year rose about 7 basis points to 4.68% and the 30-year jumped roughly 12 basis points to 5.22%.

That response suggests financial conditions did in fact tighten even though the Fed did not adjust borrowing costs.

After years of clear and frequent forward guidance from the Powell regime, Warsh is pushing the institution in the opposite direction.

For investors, a central bank that says less is harder to front-run and much more prone to being misread, which ultimately could mean higher volatility.

Warsh, though, seems to believe that communicating less will force markets to think for themselves rather than waiting to be told which way to swing.

And by taking Fed forecasts out of the equation, he’s betting that investors will become sharper market participants on their own.

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📉 Meta fell after hours after missing earnings estimates and raising full-year capex guidance. Revenue of $60.8 billion did beat the $60.2 billion consensus but earnings of $6.18 a share fell well short of the $7.14 expected. (CNBC)

🚀 Microsoft crushed earnings and Azure crossed $100 billion in annualized revenue for the first time. Revenue of $90 billion beat the $87.4 billion consensus and GAAP EPS of $4.81 topped $4.21 expected. Cloud services grew 43% and remaining performance obligation swelled 84% to $678 billion. (Yahoo Finance)

🛢 Oil jumped once again as Iran resumed strikes on US bases. Brent crude climbed back above $90 a barrel with Iran-backed militias hitting Saudi oil facilities for a second straight day. (CNBC)

🤖 Vertiv fell 17% after missing revenue estimates. The AI data-center infrastructure maker delivered $3.27 billion in sales versus the $3.38 billion consensus but raised Q3 guidance to $3.65-$3.85 billion, blaming the shortfall on supply-chain timing rather than demand. (Barron’s)

🗓 July 30, 1914: The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 6.9%, from 56.20 to 52.32, as European mobilization for World War I sparked panic selling on Wall Street.

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