Good morning, investors. I know I won’t be the only market-watcher at the Knicks championship parade in downtown Manhattan today.

Many traders and fund managers around the city have told me that they are taking the day off to attend the Knicks’ first parade in 53 years.

I’m already halfway out the door, so let’s get to the news.

Kevin Warsh ushered in a new era at the Fed with surprisingly few words. 

The new Fed chair shortened the central bank’s policy statement by 62%, refrained from adding to the dot plot, and otherwise signaled that he would bring new ideas to the very old institution.

To no surprise, the FOMC kept interest rates unchanged in a unanimous vote.

Though the messaging still tilted more hawkish compared to March, when the economic data still pointed to rate cuts. 

Several central bankers penciled in a rate hike before the end of the year, and now markets see 60% odds for a rate hike in October, according to CME data. 

Only one official forecasted a rate cut in 2026, down from 12 last quarter.

As for Warsh, he said he’s launching task forces to rework how the Fed communicates.

He believes markets work best when they react to data, rather than trying to position for how the Fed might react to data. 

Like Alan Greenspan, and unlike Jerome Powell, Warsh seems set on minimizing messaging to keeping markets guessing.

The likely outcome of that, for investors, is elevated volatility on account of what’s sure to be higher uncertainty around monetary policy. 

Choppier markets could be a problem for the AI trade. Fewer words from policymakers means more guesswork for the chip stocks carrying the market — think Micron, Marvell, Western Digital — and sitting on triple-digit rallies. 

As we covered Tuesday, Warsh doesn’t need to hike rates to spook the stock market. 

He only needs to slightly raise the odds that he might. 

And with inflation at 4.2%, that may not be difficult. 

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🚀 SpaceX shares dropped 5% in their fourth trading session. The venture is still up nearly 40% from last Friday's record IPO at $135, leaving the rocket maker with a $2.6 trillion market cap. (CNBC)

📊 May retail sales beat expectations with a 0.9% jump. Spending rose nearly double the 0.5% forecast and the prior month's 0.4% read, the strongest beat of the year. (FXStreet)

🛢 President Trump said he expected the S&P 500 to fall 20% during the Iran war. Speaking at the G7, he conceded surprise that stocks held up and oil never hit $200 a barrel, weeks after a U.S.-brokered peace deal cooled crude prices below $80. (Quartz)

Jordi Visser is a leading AI and macro investor and Wall Street veteran. We sat down to discuss moving off the Magnificent 7, the next leg of the AI trade, buying into bottlenecks, benchmark arbitrage and his bull thesis for specific stocks.

Tune in on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or YouTube.

🗓 June 18, 1812: President James Madison signed the U.S. declaration of war against Britain. With the First Bank of the United States shuttered the year before and the Treasury nearly empty, the government turned to interest-bearing Treasury notes to fund the war.

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