Good morning, investors. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is set to deliver his Jackson Hole speech today.

We’ll have to see if he sticks to his anti-forward guidance stance, or if he sheds more light on his outlook on economic data and monetary policy.

Stocks have climbed on seven of the last 10 Jackson Hole Fed speeches but no one knows what to expect from Kevin Warsh.

 The new Fed Chairman’s commitment to being non-committal on forward guidance will be tested in Wyoming. Investors should not let further reticence surprise them, nor should they allow the 7-for-10 winning record on this occasion fool them. 

The three losing days in the last decade were enough to erase the seven positive sessions, according to Dow Jones data. 

The average same-day return across the last 10 Jackson Hole speeches is a loss of 0.09%.

At any rate, President Trump has not been shy in calling for lower interest rates.

He tapped Warsh for the top job at the Fed because he believed the former Fed governor could make it happen.

So far Warsh has kept rates unchanged two policy meetings in a row, though in July three of his colleagues at the central bank dissented in favor of a hike. 

Inflation still hovers well above the Fed’s 2% target — a number Warsh has said he indeed takes seriously — though the labor market remains relatively stable. 

Warsh has insisted on not guiding markets on policy in order to allow markets to do it themselves.

Yet given elevated inflation, rising government debt and the ongoing conflict in Iran, perhaps it’s not so curious, then, why bond yields have ticked up to multi-year highs. 

Markets see at least one rate hike before the end of the year.

The economic backdrop makes a compelling case for one, too. 

But the reality is, Warsh was not voted in for the top job to raise interest rates. 

🏦 Treasury's Bessent and Fed governor Warsh are drifting on rate strategy. The rare public divergence between two officials on monetary policy is opening space for a more hawkish tilt inside the Fed. (Reuters)

🤖 Alphabet has lost $692 billion in market value since its recent peak. The Google parent has led Mag 7 losses this summer as questions mount about the durability of its ad monopoly in the AI era. (Bloomberg)

🛢 Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz are picking back up. Rising volumes suggest tensions in the region have eased for now, though the chokepoint still carries roughly a fifth of the world's seaborne crude. (Yahoo Finance)

🗓 August 28, 1907: James Casey borrowed $100 to launch the American Messenger Company in Seattle. It would go on to become UPS and, in 1999, the biggest IPO in history at that time.

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