Good morning, investors. In December, veteran strategist Jay Woods joined me on Full Signal and said it’s time to rebrand the Mag 7 as the “Lag 7,” and that call has largely been right in the market’s view.
But lagging share prices haven’t seem to have undercut earnings in the slightest.
Mag 7 still rule markets
The Magnificent 7 have fallen out of favor as a group but they still dominate earnings season.
Wall Street sees the Big Tech names growing earnings 31.1% year-over-year in the second quarter, outpacing the rest of the market by almost double digits.
According to FactSet estimates, the S&P 493 is expected to grow earnings at 22.8% compared to a year ago.
That in itself would mark the strongest rate since the end of 2021, but even that won’t be enough to keep up with the household mega-cap technology names.

The Magnificent 7 as a group are relatively flat this year, while the equal-weight S&P 500 has gained more than 10%.
Still, only one of the five biggest contributors to earnings growth for the index is a Magnificent 7 company:
Nvidia
Micron
Chevron
Exxon Mobil
Broadcom
If you strip out Nvidia and Micron, earnings growth for the entire index slows from 24.7% to 16.8%, which means two names account for roughly a third of the entire market’s growth in the quarter.
Notably, the dominance of the Magnificent 7 is expected to wane through the rest of the year while the un-Magnificent 493 are seen improving their earnings growth beyond Big Tech.

Analysts see the Magnificent 7 growing earnings 31.8% in the third quarter against 25.5% for everyone else.
By the fourth quarter, that flips. The S&P 493 is expected to grow earnings 25.3% compared to 22.8% for Big Tech.
That said, it remains true today that the trade investors gave up on still runs earnings season.
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Market snapshot

Elsewhere
🛢Oil prices climbed as US strikes on Iran stretched into a ninth straight day. Iran’s Houthi allies declared a maritime embargo on Saudi Arabia that threatens roughly 4 million barrels a day of Red Sea flows. (CNBC)
🛑 The Paramount-Warner Bros. merger is on pause. A judge stopped the $81 billion deal for at least two weeks to give states more time to pursue their legal challenge. (AP)
📈 Domino's Pizza stock jumped 7% after beating earnings estimates. The chain delivered $1.19 billion against a $1.18 billion consensus even as EPS of $4.07 missed the $4.17 mark. US same-store sales rose 0.1%. (Reuters)
🏦 Americans oppose government equity stakes in US companies by more than 2-to-1. A new survey found 49% called it inappropriate for Washington to take ownership positions in private firms while 19% said it was acceptable. (CNBC)
Rapid-fire
President Trump imposed 50% tariffs on certain Canadian goods (CNBC)
Taco Bell traffic has plummeted after the reported parasite outbreak tied to lettuce (Bloomberg)
AMC stock jumped 24% after Christopher Nolan's “Odyssey” record box office weekend (CNBC)
Gas prices have climbed back to $4 a gallon in the US (CNN)
Veteran strategist Mike Green sees AI fueling another 1987-style crash (Full Signal)
President Trump’s head of AI safety agency resigned after 3 months (CNBC)
Apple is the king of AI even though it barely spends on AI (Opening Bell Daily)
On this day
🗓 July 21, 2010: President Obama signed the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, the biggest overhaul of US financial supervision since the 1930s. The law aimed to end the notion of "too big to fail.”
Last thing
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