Good morning, investors. The Iran conflict has followed an on-again, off-again pattern for months at this point. It makes sense to expect that to continue for the time being, markets be damned.

The AI sell-off doesn’t seem to be directly tied to the Middle East, but that doesn’t make the opportunity any less interesting.

Disconnected fundamentals

The best earnings in semiconductor history are getting cheaper by the day.

Nvidia, Micron and other names that have led the AI trade continue to print record quarterly numbers while their stocks stall out, underscoring a disconnect that speaks to just how lofty expectations have climbed.

Nvidia, for one, is now trading at its cheapest valuation since 2019.

It logged $81.6 billion in revenue last quarter, up 85% from a year ago, and yet the stock has stayed flat for most of 2026.

On a forward P/E basis, Nvidia now trades in line with the S&P 500 at about 21x, far below its five-year average of 72x.

It has arguably never looked this cheap and compelling.

Meanwhile, as Opening Bell Daily covered earlier this week, memory names tell a similar story:

  • Micron grew revenue 346% last quarter but the stock is down 25% from its recent high

  • Samsung and SK Hynix also broke records yet their share prices are in a bear market

  • SanDisk, Western Digital and Seagate all hover roughly 30% below their highs

To be clear, none of this reflects deteriorating fundamentals.

The simpler story is that, one, these stocks have run up so aggressively that a pullback was inevitable, and two, the entry prices at the start of the month were already priced to perfection.

Micron had gained 245% in the last six months before its double-digit pullback and it now trades near 7x forward earnings.

When a stock has stayed hot for this long, blowout earnings can become a compelling reason to both take profits and avoid buying for the first time.

And keep in mind that Nvidia entered the year as the most popular stock in the world. It makes sense that its multiple compressed even as earnings kept doubling.

The bullish wrinkle here, of course, is that hyperscaler capex is still projected to hit $1 trillion in 2027.

Should that forecast hold, Wall Street is currently marking down record-smashing earnings on an industry that is set to collect endless capital in the year ahead.

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The wait is over.

Market snapshot

Elsewhere

🤖 Apple committed $30 billion to Broadcom for US chipmaking. The expansion of the partnership marks Apple's largest American manufacturing deal yet and includes a $1.5 billion buildout of Broadcom's Fort Collins facility. (Quartz)

🎯 House lawmakers opened a probe into US companies using Chinese AI models. The investigation targets firms adopting Chinese-built models like DeepSeek and Qwen and could change the rules for cross-border AI supply chains. (CNBC)

🚀 Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin secured a $130 billion valuation with its first outside funding round. Coatue Management is leading the $10 billion raise with a $4 billion commitment, and Bezos personally added another $2 billion. (Reuters)

📨 Anyone can tell you the market moved. Our friends at the Daily Upside tell you what’s driving it, where it leads and what most coverage misses. Join 1M subscribers free.

Rapid-fire

  • President Trump said he’s “not sure” he wants a deal with Iran (CNBC)

  • Intel is trading at a level that exceeds its dot-com peak (Yahoo Finance)

  • US chip stocks fell while Chinese tech names rallied Wednesday (Barron’s)

  • Manhattan office leasing saw its best first half in over two decades (CNBC)

  • SK Hynix is up 700% in a year but the market is pricing it like the boom is about to end (ProCap Insights)

  • Chevron and Exxon Mobil climbed as the Iran conflict flared up again (Yahoo Finance)

  • Memory stocks entered a bear market the same day Samsung reported its best quarter ever (Opening Bell Daily)

Interview

I sat down with Mike Green, chief strategist for Simplify, to unpack why he sees another 1987-style market crash down the line, the distorted economics of the AI boom, being bullish on the technology and bearish on the market, and the perils of the constant market bid from passive investing.

Tune in on Spotify, Apple Podcasts or YouTube — and please leave a review if you find the episode valuable!

On this day

🗓 July 9, 1877: The Bell Telephone Company was organized in Boston as a common law joint-stock company built to hold Alexander Graham Bell's master telephone patent. This eventually became AT&T, one of the most valuable US corporations in the 20th century.

Last thing

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