Good morning, investors. I’ve been keeping close tabs on legacy brokerages like Schwab and Fidelity’s push for younger investors on their platforms. My sense is that they are trying to get ahead of the demographic shifts that Robinhood seems to have already figured out.

I joined Stuart Varney on Fox Business to discuss what comes next and how it relates to Allbirds’ head-scratching pivot to AI.

Now let’s get to the main event.

🚨 Reader note: I will be hosting a webinar with Anthony Pompliano on Monday at 4 PM ET to unpack the specific trade ideas that have come out of our latest investment research with ProCap Insights. Join free.

The Nasdaq is breaking records and making history but oil traders aren’t on board.

The index just notched 12 consecutive up days. It’s the longest winning streak since 2009 and equity investors are pricing in a rapid resolution in Iran.

Yet with crude still within range of $100 a barrel, oil traders are positioned for a different outcome.

"Oil futures traders apparently aren't as sanguine as equity investors about when the chaos of war will end," wrote veteran economist Ed Yardeni in a Thursday note.

Indeed, the S&P 500 is coming off its second day in a row closing above 7,000, and tech stocks have led the V-shaped rebound since ceasefire talks first started.

All the while, earnings expectations remain upbeat.

That optimism stops with stocks.

Oil prices remain stuck roughly halfway between their pre-war levels of $70 and war-time highs near $120.

By Yardeni’s count, roughly 70 supertankers are now heading toward the US in search of crude, nearly three times the normal monthly number.

Meanwhile, US crude exports are expected to hit 5 million barrels a day in May, up from a 4 million daily average last year.

With no space production capacity and limited port space, it isn’t surprising that oil traders are positioning for more snags, hiccups and headaches.

Nonetheless, stock market investors seem convinced of a fast-approaching Middle East deal.

Only one of these markets can be right.

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🎯 Trump announced a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. It’s the first time that the two nations have held talks in three decades, and the White House is playing a primary role in facilitating it. (CNBC)

🚀 TSMC profits surged 58% on record AI chip demand. Taiwan's chipmaker beat estimates with gross margins at 66.2% and lifted its full-year revenue-growth outlook above 30%. (Investing.com)

📊 Initial jobless claims fell to 207000 last week. The drop of 11,000 was the biggest one-week decline since February. It came in well below the 215,000 economists had expected. (Reuters)

📈 PepsiCo beat first-quarter earnings estimates across the board. Snack price cuts on Doritos and Lay's returned the business to volume growth for the first time in a year, while adjusted EPS of $1.61 beat the $1.55 consensus. (CNBC)

🗓 April 17, 1837: J.P. Morgan was born in Hartford, Connecticut. He would go on to personally bail out the U.S. Treasury's gold reserves during the depression of 1893 and organize the response to the Panic of 1907.

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