Good morning, investors. Over the next couple days investors will be waiting for a fresh slate of earnings, Fed minutes and potentially a new salvo of Canadian tariffs.

Here’s a quick tally of what could move markets this week:

Let’s start with retail earnings.

Four retail giants are set to report earnings but none will tell you much about the American consumer.

That’s because retail earnings track portfolios more closely than consumer spending, according to data from Moody’s Analytics. 

The firm estimates that the top 20% of earners generated nearly all US spending growth over the last three years, and that’s the same demographic that has benefitted from booming stock prices. 

Home Depot, Target, Lowe's and Walmart all report quarterly results this week.

Each will be covered as an indicator on the health of shoppers, but their stock prices tell a story of divergence, as well as a K-shaped economy.

Target has dominated the group with a more than 50% return over the last 12 months, far ahead of its peers.

Walmart remains up double-digits in the same period but Lowe’s and Home Depot are down double-digits. 

That is a massive spread across companies ostensibly selling to the same consumer base. 

The spending data explains the gap, with Moody’s estimating that the top 20% now account for 60% of personal outlays. That’s up from 50% during the dot-com bubble.

Households above $200,000 grew spending 4% after inflation through the first quarter, whereas the bottom 80% was flat.

The top 10% holds 90% of household equity, by Moody’s math, which makes the marginal consumer dollar a function of asset prices.

The S&P 500 is up roughly 14% in 2026, and that seems to matter more now than wage growth.

Indeed, Walmart CEO John Furner told analysts last quarter that most of the company’s gains have come from households above $100,000.

It doesn’t help, too, that retail sales fell 0.6% in July and consumer sentiment dropped to 51.0 from 55.2 — all against the backdrop of a record-breaking stock market. 

Those readings used to contradict each other, but in an increasingly financialized world the K-shaped economy seems inevitable.

Retail earnings will continue to be reported as gut-check on consumers, but it would be more accurate to chalk them up to the state of wealthy stock market investors.

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🛢 The US-Iran ceasefire expired without an extension. Attacks in the Strait of Hormuz resumed within hours, and a cargo ship was struck with one crew casualty, sending oil prices back above $90 for the first time in three weeks. (CNBC)

🏦 The 30-year Treasury yield hovers near its highest level in decades. Traders point to stickier inflation, a widening supply pipeline, and questions about Fed independence heading into Wednesday's July FOMC minutes. (Bloomberg)

🎯 The White House scaled back joint US-South Korea military drills as attention shifted to Iran and North Korea. The reset lands with the Iran ceasefire lapsed and Washington juggling three active military flashpoints at once. (CNBC)

🗓 August 19, 2004: Google began trading on the Nasdaq under ticker GOOG at an $85 IPO price, closing its first session at $100.34 for an 18% pop.

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