Bar chart of average and median S&P 500 returns from September to December since 1950. October averages a 0.9% gain and rose in 45 of 76 years, while September averages a 0.6% loss

The S&P 500 has averaged a 0.9% gain in October since 1950, with a median gain of 1.0%.

The index rose in October in 45 of 76 years, or 59% of the time.

September is the weakest month of the year, with an average loss of 0.6%.

It rose in just 34 of those 76 years.

Here are the average monthly returns for the last 4 months of the year since 1950.

  • September -0.6%

  • October +0.9%

  • November +1.9%

  • December +1.4%

October's scary reputation owes a lot to the crashes of 1929 and 1987.

Black Monday was 39 years ago today, on October 19, 1987.

The typical October has still been a winner for stocks.

The median gain of 1.0% sits above the 0.9% average, which means a handful of bad years pull the average down.

See how the S&P 500 did after every midterm election.

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Phil Rosen
Phil Rosen

Phil Rosen is co-founder and CEO of Opening Bell Media and chief market strategist for Silvia Inc. (NASDAQ: SVIA). He hosts Full Signal and writes Opening Bell Daily — the markets briefing read by over 200,000 investors and published on Bloomberg Terminals — and has also published two books and won a Fulbright award for his reporting. Contact him at [email protected].

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