Stocks have gone up in the year after every midterm election since 1950. The S&P 500 gained an average of 15.1% in the 12 months following each of the last 19 midterm votes, and not one of those stretches ended lower.
That's one of the cleanest calendar patterns on Wall Street. The median gain was 14.5%, so a couple of monster years aren't doing all the work.
The best and worst years after a midterm
Best, up 33.2% in the year after the 1954 vote
Runners-up, up 27.1% after 1994 and up 25.1% after 1990
Worst, up 1.1% after 1986, a window that took in the October 1987 crash
Five of the 19 gained less than 7%
Why the midterm year itself is rough
The gains tend to show up after the vote because the run-up is usually bumpy. In midterm years since 1950, the S&P 500's biggest peak-to-trough drop within the year has averaged 17.5%, the deepest of any year in the four-year presidential cycle.
1974 fell 37.6% at its worst
2002 fell 33.8%
2022 fell 25.4% before bottoming on October 12
Those lows often landed in late summer or early fall, ahead of Election Day. Once the results are in, one big source of uncertainty is gone, and stocks have historically run from there.
Election Day to New Year's
The short-term pattern leans positive, but it's weaker. From Election Day to December 31, the S&P 500 rose in 13 of the 19 midterm years, with an average gain of 2.6%.
2018 was the worst of that bunch, down 9.0% by December 31 after a slide into the Christmas Eve low. The index was still up 11.7% a year after that vote.
The full quarter looks better. The S&P 500 has averaged a 6.6% gain in the fourth quarter of midterm years, finishing higher in 16 of 19.
Where 2026 fits
2026 is a midterm year, and Americans vote on Tuesday, November 3.
2026 broke the usual midterm script. The S&P 500 set a record close of 7,818.93 on October 6 and was up 11.9% for the year as of October 16. Its deepest drop of 2026 through that date was 9.1%, about half the midterm-year average.
For a deeper look at what tends to follow the vote, see post-midterm returns in three charts.
History says the hard part of a midterm year usually comes before the ballots are counted, not after.
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