Good morning, investors. Hype is picking up ahead of SpaceX’s debut in public markets just a few days away.

And as it turns out, history gives us a solid ballpark for how big of a rally we should “hope” to see from the stock.

The 2026 IPO wave is set to eclipse the dot-com peak in real dollars but that fact alone doesn’t mean AI is another bubble.

With SpaceX, Anthropic, OpenAI and others set to debut in public markets this year, whether they boom or trade sideways out the gate will determine whether it’s time to take 1999 comparisons seriously.

Nick Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, spent the 1990s sitting in on IPO pricing meetings. He said the process hasn’t changed in decades.

Insiders typically want the stock to climb in its first weeks of trading without going parabolic.

Not only does too large an early rally makes bankers look incompetent for leaving money on the table but it also signals froth and exuberance, Colas said.

A 15-20% bounce for an IPO matches the comparisons between 1995 and 1998.

But once you enter the 50-70% range, that starts to resemble the last stage of the dot-com bubble in 1999, when the average first-day gain was 71.2%, according to DataTrek calculations.

Now, the total capital being raised this year will dwarf even the late-stage internet-era numbers.

The 1999 and 2000 IPO classes, for instance, each raised $65 billion — roughly $125 billion after adjusting for inflation — across nearly 900 early-stage companies.

Meanwhile, SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI are expected to raise $175 billion combined with just those three names.

"At the end of the Dot Com boom, small companies raced to go public at high valuations and used the money raised to build often sketchy/hazy business models," Colas wrote.

"Now, it is very large companies hitting public markets, and the money raised is going to build artificial intelligence," he said.

“Claude and ChatGPT may have their shortcomings, but they are certainly not Pets.com.”

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📊The US data center buildout is behind schedule. Despite massive amounts of capital being deployed for AI infrastructure, more than 60% of data center capacity planned for completion next year hasn’t even started construction, and another 7% is delayed. (WSJ)

🏘 Sellers are pulling homes off the market at the fastest pace since 2020. Nationwide, 5.8% of all listings were taken off the market in April, according to Redfin. Delistings were also up 3.8% compared to March. (CNBC)

📉 Bitcoin continues to falter in 2026. The cryptocurrency tails stocks by the widest margin since 2019, with investors capturing risk-asset gains elsewhere in the market. Options in crypto equities like IBIT and Strategy have shifted bearish for the first time in weeks. (CNBC)

I sat down with Sonali Basak, chief investment strategist for iCapital, to discuss the warning signs flashing in private markets ahead of the SpaceX IPO, the most attractive sectors in the stock market, why financials look too beaten down, and more.

Tune in on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or YouTube.

🗓 June 4, 2018: Microsoft announced a $7.5 billion all-stock acquisition of GitHub, then the world's largest software development platform.

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